Fra Danske Bank:
Economic activity has proved more resilient than expected over the summer despite negative supply shocks from higher energy prices linked to the war in Iran and unusually warm weather. Euro area HICP inflation rose as expected in August to 3.3% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in July, while core inflation declined to 2.4% y/y, below expectations of 2.5%. Broader non-energy inflation momentum is also running close to 2%, pointing to contained underlying inflation
We continue to expect a final 25bp hike by the ECB in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but now see the ECB keeping it there throughout 2027 rather than cut it back to 2.00%. The more resilient growth backdrop removes the need for cuts next year, while contained underlying inflation limits the need for more than one additional hike.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
