Flere indikatorer over erhvervsklimaet i eurozonen viser en svag forbedring af klimaet fra april til maj – som følge af den forsigtige genåbning af økononien. Men generelt ligger stemningen stadig helt nede på recessions-niveauet. ABN Amro venter en nedgang i den økonomiske vækst i andet kvartal på 11,4 pct. i forhold til første kvartal. Problemer med den globale forsyningskæde og den globale efterspørgsel lægger stadig en dæmper på stemningen i den tyske industri.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Global Daily – Euro business confidence remains at deep recession levels
Euro Macro: Business confidence rises but remains consistent with sharp falls in activity – A number of indicators for the eurozone business climate in May has been published in recent days. In general, all indicators increased from their April levels, as part of the lockdown measures were eased in the first two weeks of May. Still, the easing of lockdowns is being introduced very gradually and large parts of the economy remain disrupted.
Moreover, some details of the report signal that activity is not only disrupted by lockdowns but also by an underlying and longer lasting deterioration in economic conditions. Despite their rises in May, all business climate indicators have remained at levels consistent with deep recession. We have pencilled in a contraction of eurozone GDP by 11.4% qoq in Q2, following -3.8% in Q1.
To begin with, the eurozone composite PMI increased to 30.5 in May, up from 13.6 in April. The division into the PMIs for services (to 28.7 from 12.0) and manufacturing (to 39.5 from 33.4) shows that each sector still is in deep recession, and that most of the economic damage remains concentrated in the services sectors.
The forward looking components of PMI report, such as the manufacturing new orders and services expected activity indicators also remained at levels consistent with ongoing deep contraction in activity.
The details of the PMI report also reveal that the labour market is deteriorating rapidly, with the employment component of the composite PMI increasing much more modestly than the activity indictors (up to 37.4 from 33.4). We think that deteriorating labour market conditions will continue to weigh on consumer spending for a considerable period of time and well into 2021.
A picture of ongoing deep recession was also painted by Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator, which increased to 79.5 in May, up from 74.2 in April. At its current level it still is somewhat below the lows of the global financial crisis.
Surprisingly, the rise in the business climate was totally due to higher expectations, whereas the part of the survey that measures current business conditions declined in May, despite the easing of lockdown measures. Whereas the assessment of current conditions rose modestly in the services sector and trade, these rises were more than offset by declines in the current conditions in manufacturing and construction. This seems to signal that supply chain disruptions and weak global demand continue to weigh on Germany’s manufacturing sector.
