UniCredit har analyseret insolvens-udviklingen i eurozonen. Tallene kan tyde på en konkursbølge som følge af coronakrisen, især i servicesektoren, men de underliggende tal viser, at virksomhederne er blevet mere robuste. Derfor er en stor bølge af konkurser i de store lande ikke sandsynlige. Mange virksomheder har optaget lån i tide for at kunne klare sig gennem krisen. Det bemærkelsesværdige er, at mindre virksomheder har et stærkere kapitalgrundlag end de store.
Higher equity ratios in eurozone to reassure against insolvency “wave”
■ A marked rise in the number of corporate insolvencies is likely in the eurozone. Economic pressure, especially in the services sector, and the (foreseeable) ending of moratoriums for filing bankruptcy are major drivers.
■ However, our analysis of equity ratios for Germany, France and Italy shows that a huge “wave” of insolvencies is improbable. Companies have become more resilient by substantially raising their capital buffers before the outbreak of the pandemic.
■ In 2019 (latest available data), French non-financial corporates had an equity ratio of more than 40%
compared to about 37% for Germany and 27% for Italy.
■ Among smaller companies, French entities recorded the highest equity ratio before the crisis with 43%. Larger Italian companies (32½%) had lower capital buffers than their German peers (35%) but were somewhat higher than in France (31½%).
■ More timely available debt data for 2020 confirm that the leverage of companies has barely changed on a net basis since the outbreak of the pandemic. The reason is that firms have boosted their borrowing mainly to increase their liquidity buffers for precautionary motives.
