Resume af teksten:
Eurozonens industrielle sektor viser tegn på bedring med en vækst på 0,8% i oktober, op fra 0,2% i september, hvilket giver en årlig vækst på 2,0%. Denne cykliske opblomstring af industrien understøtter ECB’s tro på, at yderligere rentenedsættelser ikke er nødvendige. Sektoren har været udfordret af høje energipriser efter den russiske invasion af Ukraine, samt yderligere pres fra handelskrigen, en styrket euro og øget kinesisk konkurrence. Lavere olie- og gaspriser og faldende lagre giver dog noget pusterum. På sigt forventes den industrielle genopretning at fortsætte, hjulpet af tyske investeringer i forsvar og infrastruktur og EU’s genopretningsfond. Selvom bedringen er positiv, løser den ikke alle strukturelle problemer i eurozonens industri.
Fra ING:
The battered eurozone industry is showing signs of life, with a growth acceleration in October. While structural headwinds remain, the cyclical recovery will reinforce the ECB’s conviction that no further rate cuts are needed
Despite structural headwinds, the industrial recovery is gaining momentum
Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.8% in October, up from 0.2% in September, with annual growth reaching 2.0%.
The eurozone’s manufacturing sector has had a rough time since 2022 on the back of high energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On top of that, this year has brought additional headwinds, such as the trade war, a strengthening euro and intensifying Chinese competition. However, declining oil and gas prices have offered some relief, and reduced inventories are gradually giving way to increased production.
We expect the recovery in manufacturing to continue in 2026, now that the German government is finally making some progress with the implementation of its higher defence and infrastructure plans. We must also not forget that the remaining money from the EU’s recovery fund will have to be spent in 2026.
It would be a mistake to believe that, because of the current cyclical upturn, all the eurozone’s industrial structural problems have been solved. But today’s data confirms the ECB’s belief that risks to the eurozone economy in the coming year are no longer skewed to the downside. This will only reinforce the idea that no further rate cuts are needed, even if inflation undershoots temporarily due to lower energy prices.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
