Resume af teksten:
Økonomien i eurozonen har vist modstandskraft over for globale chok, såsom US-Iran konflikten og stigende energipriser. I andet kvartal 2025 voksede eurozonens BNP med 0,4 % kvartal-til-kvartal, den hurtigste vækstrate siden første kvartal 2025. Dataen er dog påvirket af store sving i Irlands økonomi, som har stærk forbindelse til multinationale selskabers regnskabsaktivitet. Uden Irlands påvirkning ville BNP-væksten i Q2 have været 0,3 %. Produktion i eurozonen har nydt godt af mindre energiomkostninger sammenlignet med Asien. Forbrugerforventninger er afdæmpede grundet konflikter i Mellemøsten, men stigende lønninger hjælper med at absorbere højere brændstofpriser. Konflikten i Mellemøsten udgør den største risiko for økonomien, men uden en stor optrapning forventes fortsat moderat vækst.
Fra ING:
The eurozone economy seems to have once again shrugged off a global economic shock quite well. The US-Iran war and subsequent rising energy prices have not done much to dent eurozone growth rates so far. The second-quarter growth rate came in at a strong 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was the fastest since the first quarter of 2025.
But truth be told, eurozone headline GDP data continues to be distorted significantly by jumps in Irish data, which is notorious for being influenced by multinational accounting activity. Mainly because of Ireland, a -0.2% decline in GDP was initially recorded for Q1. This has now been revised up materially to 0%. In Q2, Ireland saw a strong contribution to GDP growth with 3.9% QoQ. The question is how meaningful this really is when assessing economic activity in the eurozone.
Stripping out Ireland, we see that GDP growth would have been 0.3% in Q2 – only modestly stronger than in Q1. In fact, growth has been around 0.3% since Q3 last year for the eurozone excluding Ireland. A surprisingly steady and decent pace, given all the uncertainty and the negative economic impact from trade and war in the Middle East.
But manufacturing has profited from smaller energy price increases than in Asia. And with steady public investment and defence spending increases, the manufacturing sector remains upbeat about the second half of the year. While consumers remain downbeat on Middle East developments, steady wage increases have provided a buffer from higher prices at the pump.
Of course, the war in the Middle East poses the main downside risk to the eurozone economy for the moment. But bar a prolonged period of significant re-escalation, eurozone GDP growth could well continue to motor on at a decent – though not spectacular – pace. At a time when risks are so prominent, that’s actually quite good news.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone-economy-motors-on-despite-middle-east-war/
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