Fald i Indiens vækst, og udviklingen ventes at fortsætte

Væksten faldt i Indien i 3. kvartal til 4,5 pct., og det kan påvirke den globale vækstrate. Der er udsigt til, at den lavere vækst vil vare i længere tid.

Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:

India’s slowdown has certainly been the most under-appreciated aspect of the current global downturn. In Q3 this year, the Indian economy reached a 6-year low at 4.5% YoY, down from 5% in the previous quarter. The current slowdown has a noticeable impact on global growth as the country’s contribution to global GDP is about 8% and it is expected to exceed US’ by 2024, at 15.5%.

All the leading indicators are confirming the slowdown will be prolonged: industrial production is out at minus 4.2% YoY in September, non-oil imports are at their lowest level since 2016 at minus 12.3% YoY in October, and vehicle sales and registrations are still in contraction at minus 6.3% YoY in October, after reaching an historical low point at minus 41% YoY in August.

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In fact, India’s two core economic issues are related to weak external demand and, foremost, to the blockages in the financial system. The government and the RBI are facing a sharp liquidity squeeze along with banking instability which force them to bailout state-run banks. So far, the issue has been imperfectly addressed and we expect that the economic situation will get worse (meaning that GDP growth will evolve under 6% YoY for an extended period) before it gets better.

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