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The main findings from the April 2024 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations increased to 3.3% from 3.0% at the one-year horizon (remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 3.5%), decreased to 2.8% from 2.9% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.8% from 2.6% at the five-year horizon. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon and increased at the three-year and five-year horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and declined at the three-year horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations increased to 3.3% after remaining unchanged at 3.0% for seven consecutive months. This is the highest reading of the series since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with a high school degree or less.
- Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in April, increasing by 0.3 percentage point for gas to 4.8%, 0.2 percent point for food to 5.3%, 0.6 percent point for the cost of medical care to 8.7%, 2.5 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.0% and 0.4 percentage point for rent to 9.1%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%. The decline was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less. While lower, the current reading remains well above the 2.0%-2.2% levels prevailing at the onset of the pandemic.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1 percentage point to 37.2%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 38.2%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 15.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also declined, by 1.2 percentage points to 19.4%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost declined for the fourth consecutive month, to 50.9% from 51.2% in March. This is the lowest reading of the series since April 2021.
Household Finance
- Median expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved with a smaller share of respondents reporting tighter conditions compared to a year ago. Expectations about credit access a year from now also improved with a smaller share of respondents expecting tighter credit a year from now.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months remained unchanged at 12.9%. The series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 11.8%.
- The median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt remained unchanged at 9.6%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 28.8%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated with fewer respondents reporting being better off and more respondents reporting being worse off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 38.7%.
