Resume af teksten:
Det amerikanske midtvejsvalg ventes at få begrænset effekt på finansmarkederne.
Senatsvalget kan afgøre, om der kommer samlet demokratisk kontrol eller politisk fastlåsning.
Handelspolitik, sundhedsregulering og gældsloftet i 2027 kan blive påvirket af resultatet.
Denne uge aflægger selskaber svarende til 43 pct. af amerikansk og 33 pct. af europæisk markedsværdi regnskab.
Investorer følger især teknologi- og AI-selskabers forventninger, investeringer og efterspørgsel.
Euroen er blevet presset af bekymringer om fransk politik og offentlige finanser, men faldet er foreløbig stoppet.
Statsobligationer steg under aktiesvaghed i oktober og viste igen en stabiliserende rolle.
Guld er faldet fra de seneste toppe, muligvis fordi investorer i Kina sælger for at skaffe kontanter.
På længere sigt støttes guld fortsat af statsgæld, rentebyrder og centralbankers køb.
Fra Julius Bär:
What should I watch for during the US midterm elections?
While the US midterm elections are likely to dominate headlines, their impact on financial markets may be more limited than many expect. Politically, the key focus is the Senate race, with betting markets currently favouring a narrow Democratic victory and the possibility of full Democratic control of Congress.
For investors however, the significance of the Senate race lies less in who wins and more in what governing structure emerges. A unified government could make it easier to advance parts of the administration’s agenda, while a divided government would likely increase political gridlock. Historically, markets have tended to view divided governments favourably because they reduce the likelihood of major fiscal or regulatory surprises.
Areas that could be affected by the outcome include trade policy, healthcare regulation, and future fiscal negotiations, particularly around the debt ceiling in 2027. Overall, the election may generate significant political noise but only modest market impact.
Why are earnings so important this week?
This week marks the peak of the third-quarter earnings season, with 43% of US and 33% of European market capitalisation reporting results. After strong earnings surprises in the first half of the year, expectations have risen considerably, making it harder for companies to exceed forecasts.
Particular attention will be focused on technology and AI-related leaders. Investors will be looking not only at earnings numbers but also at management guidance and spending plans, especially around AI investment and demand trends.
How is the situation in France impacting the Euro?
The euro came under pressure in recent weeks as concerns about French politics and public finances unsettled investors. While French bond market stress has continued, the euro has stopped falling for now, suggesting that much of the political risk has already been priced in. Investors appear to have moved into a wait-and-see mode rather than positioning for further weakness.
Looking ahead, analysts still expect the US dollar to weaken over the longer term, which should support the euro. However, any recovery in the single currency may be gradual given the ongoing political uncertainty in Europe.
Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has regained its appeal as a safe-haven currency. Investors continue to see it as a useful hedge against eurozone-specific risks, particularly those emanating from France. While the franc could soften somewhat if expectations for Swiss interest rates change, it is likely to remain supported as long as political uncertainty in Europe persists.
Are bonds becoming useful diversifiers again?
Recent market movements suggest they may be. During periods of equity weakness in October, government bonds rallied, demonstrating their traditional role as portfolio stabilisers.
Although bond-equity correlations have become less reliable since 2022, recent episodes have shown that high-quality, intermediate- and long-duration bonds can still provide protection during market stress. With yields remaining relatively attractive, bonds continue to offer both income and diversification benefits for investors.
Why is gold falling despite ongoing uncertainty?
Gold has retreated from its recent highs, surprising many investors given the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, fiscal concerns, and market volatility. Typically, gold benefits from uncertainty, but recent price weakness suggests other forces are at work.
One possible explanation is that investors, particularly in China, may be selling gold holdings to raise cash amid the country’s crackdown on offshore capital. At the same time, the decline cannot be fully explained by the usual drivers such as a stronger US dollar or rising bond yields. As a result, the source of the selling remains somewhat unclear.
In the near term, gold could remain under pressure if prices trigger further profit-taking. However, the longer-term investment case remains intact. Concerns about rising government debt levels, future interest-rate burdens, and ongoing central bank purchases continue to provide structural support for gold. While short-term volatility may persist, many investors still view gold as an important portfolio diversifier and hedge against long-term financial risks.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/Hkdk5998TS6Xq6S76MHZUg2ODDEhChR9OvtTz9leRd_gpaVcxTv6QE6ICz065jSlbA
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