Kommentar: Carlsberg leverede i 2. halvår 2019 et driftsoverskud før special items lidt bedre end analytikerne havde ventet. Det blev på 5294 mio. kr. mod forventet 5257 mio. kr. Overskud før skat blev dog betydeligt bedre end ventet, på 5375 mio. kr.mod forventet 4921 mio. kr. Forventningen til 2020 lyder på vækst omkring midt- encifret i driftsoverskuddet, trods pres på salget i Kina fra corona virus
Fra Carlsberg:
A strong set of results; further increase in dividend and share buy-back
FINANCIAL STATEMENT AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2019
Highlights
- Organic revenue growth of 3.2%; reported revenue growth of 5.4% to DKK 65,902m.
- Price/mix improvement of +3%; positive in all three regions.
- Total organic volume growth of 0.1%.
- Tuborg volume growth +2%, Carlsberg -3%, Grimbergen +3%, 1664 Blanc +29%,
Somersby +14%. - Craft & speciality volume growth +16%, alcohol-free brew volume growth +7%.
- Tuborg volume growth +2%, Carlsberg -3%, Grimbergen +3%, 1664 Blanc +29%,
- Organic operating profit growth of 10.5%; reported growth of 12.2% to DKK 10,465m.
- Operating margin improvement of +100bp to 15.9%.
- Reported net profit up 23.7% to DKK 6,569m. Adjusted net profit up 14.9% to DKK 6,160m.
- Adjusted earnings per share (excluding treasury shares) up 16.5% to DKK 41.0.
- Free cash flow of DKK 9,962m (2018: DKK 6,156m).
- Net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA of 1.25x (2018: 1.29x).
- ROIC improvement of 70bp to 8.8%. Excluding goodwill, improvement of 130bp to 22.2%.
- The Supervisory Board will propose to the AGM a 17% increase in dividend to DKK 21.0 per share, equal to an adjusted payout ratio of approximately 50%.
- On 30 January, the Company concluded the 2019 DKK 4.5bn share buy-back and will today initiate a new 12-month share buy-back programme worth DKK 5.0bn (see pages 19-20).
2020 Earnings expectations
- Mid-single-digit percentage organic growth in operating profit.
- A translation impact on operating profit of around DKK +50m, based on the spot rates at 3 February.
CEO Cees ’t Hart says: “We’re pleased with our results in 2019. We saw healthy top-line growth, strong margin improvement and strong cash flow. In recent years, we’ve strengthened our business considerably, and we’ll continue to execute on our SAIL’22 priorities and further reinforce our Funding the Journey culture to support long-term growth and value creation for shareholders.
“The 2019 results allow us to once again make a significant cash return to our shareholders, as shown by the Supervisory Board’s decision to recommend a dividend increase of 17% to DKK 21 and to initiate a DKK 5.0bn share buy-back programme.”
Carlsbergs rapportering for 2. halvår 2019:
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| Q1 | H1 | Q3 | H2 | Full year | Q1 | H1 | Q3 | H2 | Full year | ||
| DKK million | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | 2019 | |
| Net revenue | 12.704 | 30.966 | 17.588 | 31.537 | 62.503 | 13.887 | 32.990 | 18.526 | 32.912 | 65.902 | |
| Cost of sales | -15.311 | -15.972 | -31.283 | -16.663 | -16.601 | -33.264 | |||||
| Gross profit | 15.655 | 15.565 | 31.220 | 16.327 | 16.311 | 32.638 | |||||
| Marketing, sales and distribution expenses | -8.964 | -8.510 | -17.474 | -8.872 | -8.954 | -17.826 | |||||
| Administrative expenses | -2.452 | -2.163 | -4.615 | -2.447 | -2.286 | -4.733 | |||||
| Other operating income, net | 1 | 67 | 68 | 26 | 82 | 108 | |||||
| Share of profit after tax of associates and joint ventures | 133 | -3 | 130 | 137 | 141 | 278 | |||||
| Operating profit before special items | 4.373 | 4.956 | 9.329 | 5.171 | 5.294 | 10.465 | |||||
| Special items, net | -37 | -51 | -88 | 133 | 368 | 501 | |||||
| Financial income | 131 | 227 | 358 | 72 | 288 | 360 | |||||
| Financial expenses | -461 | -619 | -1.080 | -523 | -575 | -1.098 | |||||
| Profit before tax | 4.006 | 4.513 | 8.519 | 4.853 | 5.375 | 10.228 | |||||
| Income tax | -1.122 | -1.264 | -2.386 | -1.310 | -1.441 | -2.751 | |||||
| Consolidated profit | 2.884 | 3.249 | 6.133 | 3.543 | 3.934 | 7.477 | |||||
| Profit attributable to: | |||||||||||
| Non-controlling interests | 413 | 411 | 824 | 464 | 444 | 908 | |||||
| Shareholders in Carlsberg A/S (net profit) | 2.471 | 2.838 | 5.309 | 3.079 | 3.490 | 6.569 | |||||
| Shareholders in Carlsberg A/S, adjusted1 | 2.506 | 2.853 | 5.359 | 2.884 | |||||||
| DKK | |||||||||||
| Earnings per share (EPS) of DKK 20 | 16,2 | 18,6 | 34,8 | 20,3 | 23,4 | 43,7 | |||||
| Earnings per share, adjusted (EPS-A)1 of DKK 20 | 16,4 | 18,8 | 35,2 | 19,0 | 22,0 | 41,0 |
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konsensus estimater indsamlet af Carlsberg:
Consensus estimatesLast data input: Jan 21, 2020 Contributors: 22 |
| Median / Actual (MDKK) | 2019H2e | 2018 | 2019e | 2020e | 2021e | |
Sales volume (m hl) | 67.5 | 133.1 | 135.4 | 137.3 | 140.2 | |
| – Western Europe | 32.1 | 62.4 | 61.9 | 61.3 | 61.6 | |
| – Asia | 19.7 | 39.0 | 42.4 | 44.7 | 46.5 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 15.7 | 31.7 | 31.2 | 31.6 | 32.0 | |
Net sales | 33,096 | 62,503 | 66,095 | 68,859 | 71,330 | |
| – Western Europe | 18,424 | 36,151 | 36,216 | 36,585 | 37,109 | |
| – Asia | 8,884 | 15,530 | 18,665 | 20,318 | 21,978 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 5,788 | 10,780 | 11,199 | 11,779 | 12,108 | |
| – Other sales | 28 | 42 | 34 | 39 | 40 | |
EBIT before special items | 5,257 | 9,329 | 10,441 | 11,140 | 11,937 | |
| – Western Europe | 3,064 | 5,425 | 5,829 | 6,050 | 6,212 | |
| – Asia | 1,876 | 3,164 | 4,046 | 4,579 | 5,057 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 1,056 | 2,222 | 2,075 | 2,047 | 2,120 | |
| – Other EBIT | -736 | -1,482 | -1,501 | -1,517 | -1,515 | |
| Special items | -33 | -88 | 100 | -50 | -25 | |
| Net financials | -275 | -722 | -707 | -693 | -684 | |
EBT | 4,921 | 8,519 | 9,772 | 10,388 | 11,168 | |
| Taxes | -1,353 | -2,386 | -2,668 | -2,803 | -2,999 | |
Profit before minorities | 3,563 | 6,133 | 7,095 | 7,574 | 8,170 | |
| Minority interests | -428 | -824 | -892 | -947 | -1,003 | |
Net profit | 3,113 | 5,309 | 6,206 | 6,672 | 7,194 | |
| EBIT margin (%) | 15.9 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 16.8 | |
| Tax rate (%) | 27.5 | 28.0 | 27.3 | 27.0 | 26.9 | |
EPS (DKK) | 21.0 | 34.8 | 41.5 | 45.4 | 50.3 | |
| Adjusted EPS (DKK) | 21.6 | 35.2 | 40.8 | 45.7 | 50.3 | |
| DPS (DKK) | 18.00 | 20.28 | 22.93 | 25.02 | ||
| Free cash flow | 2,232 | 6,156 | 7,259 | 7,627 | 8,246 | |
Net interest-bearing debt | 19,587 | 17,313 | 19,587 | 19,767 | 19,891 |
| Median / Actual (MDKK) | 2019H2e | 2018 | 2019e | 2020e | 2021e | |
Sales volume (m hl) | 67.5 | 133.1 | 135.4 | 137.3 | 140.2 | |
| – Western Europe | 32.1 | 62.4 | 61.9 | 61.3 | 61.6 | |
| – Asia | 19.7 | 39.0 | 42.4 | 44.7 | 46.5 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 15.7 | 31.7 | 31.2 | 31.6 | 32.0 | |
Net sales | 33,096 | 62,503 | 66,095 | 68,859 | 71,330 | |
| – Western Europe | 18,424 | 36,151 | 36,216 | 36,585 | 37,109 | |
| – Asia | 8,884 | 15,530 | 18,665 | 20,318 | 21,978 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 5,788 | 10,780 | 11,199 | 11,779 | 12,108 | |
| – Other sales | 28 | 42 | 34 | 39 | 40 | |
EBIT before special items | 5,257 | 9,329 | 10,441 | 11,140 | 11,937 | |
| – Western Europe | 3,064 | 5,425 | 5,829 | 6,050 | 6,212 | |
| – Asia | 1,876 | 3,164 | 4,046 | 4,579 | 5,057 | |
| – Eastern Europe | 1,056 | 2,222 | 2,075 | 2,047 | 2,120 | |
| – Other EBIT | -736 | -1,482 | -1,501 | -1,517 | -1,515 | |
| Special items | -33 | -88 | 100 | -50 | -25 | |
| Net financials | -275 | -722 | -707 | -693 | -684 | |
EBT | 4,921 | 8,519 | 9,772 | 10,388 | 11,168 | |
| Taxes | -1,353 | -2,386 | -2,668 | -2,803 | -2,999 | |
Profit before minorities | 3,563 | 6,133 | 7,095 | 7,574 | 8,170 | |
| Minority interests | -428 | -824 | -892 | -947 | -1,003 | |
Net profit | 3,113 | 5,309 | 6,206 | 6,672 | 7,194 | |
| EBIT margin (%) | 15.9 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 16.8 | |
| Tax rate (%) | 27.5 | 28.0 | 27.3 | 27.0 | 26.9 | |
EPS (DKK) | 21.0 | 34.8 | 41.5 | 45.4 | 50.3 | |
| Adjusted EPS (DKK) | 21.6 | 35.2 | 40.8 | 45.7 | 50.3 | |
| DPS (DKK) | 18.00 | 20.28 | 22.93 | 25.02 | ||
| Free cash flow | 2,232 | 6,156 | 7,259 | 7,627 | 8,246 | |
Net interest-bearing debt | 19,587 | 17,313 | 19,587 | 19,767 | 19,891 |
* Volume data is collected only once every quarter – prior to quarterly statements.
