Fra BNP Paribas:
France: Election countdown Thursday’s broadcast on the France 2 TV channel is likely to be the last major event of the first round of the presidential election campaign.
The campaign officially ends at midnight on Friday, 21 April. During Saturday and before the polling stations close on Sunday evening, the candidates may not speak on TV or radio, no polls will be published and no electoral activity (eg, public speeches) will be allowed.
On 23 April, polling stations will open at 7am and close at 7pm local time. In big cities, such as Paris and Marseille, polling stations will stay open until 8pm local time. The first exit polls will be published from 8pm local time, but press reports have cast some doubt on their likely reliability. A legal change a year ago effectively extended the voting time by an hour, so pollsters reckon the initial results might be less reliable than in previous elections.
More accurate exit polls are likely to appear later, reportedly at about 8:45 pm local time. No candidate has ever received a majority in the first round of the presidential election. If this holds true on Sunday, the top two candidates will face off in a second round on 7 May. The latest opinion polls suggest that support for the four leading candidates – Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon – has settled within a tight range.
The risk of a relatively low voter turnout and uncertain levels of voting confidence for some candidates make the outcome unusually hard to gauge. Although polls suggest that the first-round outcome looks more uncertain than before, second-round projections suggest that the ultimate victor will win with a comfortable margin (please see, French politics: Election countdown for details).
The latest opinion polls suggest that support for the four leading candidates in the French presidential election has settled within a tight range.
The risk of a relatively low voter turnout and uncertain levels of voting confidence for some candidates make the outcome unusually hard to gauge.
Although polls suggest that the first-round outcome looks more uncertain than before, second-round projections suggest that the ultimate victor will win with a comfortable margin.
