Læs hele Danske Banks analyse om udsigterne for 2015 her
Re-acceleration
The global economy has been in a slowdown over the past quarters but we expect to see a synchronous re-acceleration during H1 15 as we look for higher growth in US, euro area, Japan and China.
We should thus see more convergence in 2015 after a year of strong divergence. Our growth forecasts are above consensus in the euro area and Japan.
Monetary policy is on a historically diverging path in the coming years, with the Fed expected to start hiking in Q2 while the ECB is likely to move to real quantitative easing during H1 15 and the Bank of Japan continues aggressive money printing.
Inflation is expected to stay subdued in the short term but grind higher during H2. Euro area inflation should stay below 1% for a long time but the risk of “bad” deflation is still low, in our view. We look for US inflation to move towards 2% during H2 15.
Global growth to recover in H1
The global economy has been on a softer path over the past quarters but we look for gradual improvement during H1 15, as all regions are expected to see improvement, although for differing reasons. In the US, growth moderated in Q3 and Q4 as the temporary post-winter rebound faded, but the underlying momentum in the US economy is improving, in our view. The job market is strong, wealth increases have been significant and recently a sharp decline in oil prices is giving an extra boost to consumers. On top of this, the fiscal drag has eased markedly. The main headwind currently is a stronger USD but this is not enough to stop the US economy.
