Analyse fra Natixis, der vurderer at den europæiske centralbank er tvunget til at bryde mindst eet af sine tabuer for at skabe vækst og øget inflation:
The ECB is faced with weak growth and low inflation in the euro zone and has undertaken to lift inflation to close to its 2% target. The measures taken at present (enduringly low interest rates, purchases of ABS and covered bonds) will in no way achieve this objective. The ECB will therefore have to go further, which means it will have to break at least one of its taboos:
• Either it will have to buy government bonds; this will be the case if it gives preference to increasing the size of its balance sheet and, therefore, the euro’s depreciation. The ECB normally refuses to purchase government bonds because of the resulting moral hazard: there will be less incentive for governments to reduce their fiscal deficits;
• Or it will have to buy risky assets; this will be the case if it gives preference to reducing the cost of credit in the peripheral euro-zone countries; it would then need to buy bank loans in these countries, in one form or another. The ECB usually rejects the idea of putting risky assets in its balance sheet so as to not incur the risk of losses (the cost of which would have to be met by governments) and so as to not worsen the quality of the money. In the end, the ECB may have to break both taboos (purchases of government bonds and risky assets) because of monetary policy’s ineffectiveness.
