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“Euro area manufacturing is in its deepest downturn for almost six years, with forward-looking indicators suggesting risks are tilted further to the downside as we move into spring.
“Most worrying is the downward trend in new orders. Orders are falling at a faster rate than
output to a degree not seen for seven years, meaning production is likely to be pared back
further in coming months unless demand revives. The new orders to inventory ratio has also fallen to its lowest since 2012, with many companies reporting excess warehouse stocks.
“Spare capacity is consequently developing, which means companies are likely to take a more cautious approach to hiring and investment, and instead focus on cost control.
“The weakening demand environment has meanwhile been accompanied by a marked easing of inflationary pressures to the lowest since late2016. Cost inflation has eased, but companies also report a lack of pricing power.
“The downturn is being led by Germany and Italy, but Spain has also now fallen into contraction and only modest expansions are being seen in France, Austria and the Netherlands.
“In addition to widespread trade war worries, often linked to US tariffs, and concerns regarding the outlook for the global economy, companies report that heightened political uncertainty, including Brexit, is hitting demand and driving increased risk
aversion.
