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“Eurozone manufacturing started 2020 with green shoots of recovery in sight. Most encouragingly, order books moved closer towards stabilisation, falling to the smallest extent since late 2018. With the survey indicating the steepest fall in warehouse
stocks since September 2016, the new orders-toinventory ratio, a key forward-looking indicator for factory production, surged to its highest for nearly one-and-a-half years.
“Expectations for output growth also leaped to the highest since August 2018 amid a broad-based improvement of sentiment across the region, with an especially important upturn in confidence seen in Germany.
The improvement adds to our view that the eurozone economy could see growth strengthen in the coming months, meaning the ECB will hold off with any policy changes and instead focus on its strategic review. However, key risks which could alter the brightening outlook include the threat of US tariffs and trade war escalation, Brexit-related
disruptions to trade as well as uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Wuhan coronavirus.
