Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Hent udgivelser
Hent udgivelser
Gratis white papers:
Bestyrelsesuddannelser
Bestyrelsesnetværk og redskaber
CEO-udsyn 2025-2030
Talentudvikling
Danmarks 100 Rigeste 2023
Hent udgivelser
Log ud Log ind
Køb

Gratis white papers:

Bestyrelsesuddannelser
Bestyrelsesnetværk og redskaber
CEO-udsyn 2025-2030
Talentudvikling
Danmarks 100 Rigeste 2023
Finans

Finanshus: Biden 90 procent sandsynlig som ny US præsident

Morten W. Langer

fredag 31. juli 2020 kl. 8:12

Fra BNP Paribas:

  • Covid-19 pandemic has upended the US 2020 election: The onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic and the sharpest economic contraction since the Great Depression have thrown pre-crisis electoral calculations into the air.
  • Biden looking increasingly strong favourite in Electoral College: Voter sentiment has swung sharply against incumbent President Trump since the pandemic and the recession began. 100 days away from the general election, Biden commands a ~10% lead in recent polls, which translates into a ~90% probability of victory. However, prediction markets remain more cautious, putting only 60-65% probability of a Biden victory.
  • Coattail effect increases chance of a Democratic sweep: As important as the presidential race are also the races for US Congress, notably the Senate. Sinking support for Trump has been accompanied by increasing Democratic competitiveness in key Senate races. Even previously GOP-leaning Senate seats have now become toss-ups. This raises the prospect of first unified government since 2017-19 and the first Democratic one since 2009-11.
  • A unified government can herald major policy decisions: In the 76 years since 1945 through 2020 inclusive, the United States has seen 30 years where the same party controlled the White House and both houses of Congress, or about 39% of the time. These rarer periods nevertheless open the political window to momentous policy decisions, including major legislation and even war.
  • Markets may prefer initially divided to unified government: Although Biden is more centrist than some of his left-leaning colleagues, markets may still knee-jerk react with risk aversion when faced with policies to reduce inequality, reverse Trump-era tax cuts, and regulate sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and energy. However, the medium-term implications could be more mixed as more fiscal spending boosts the economy, albeit at the cost of higher deficits.
View Document
Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Relaterede nyheder

Jobannoncer

Vis alle jobs
Finance/Business Controller til Anzet A/S
Region Sjælland
CEO for Rejsekort & Rejseplan A/S
Region H
Controller/økonomimedarbejder – få den brede vifte af økonomiopgaver
Region H
Liftra ApS i Aalborg søger en Finance Controller med ”speciale” i Transfer Pricing
Region Nordjylland

Mere fra ØU Finans

Dybdegående og original 
journalistik siden 1994

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i mere end 25 år leveret indsigtsfuld og dagsordensættende journalistik og analyser til læserne og den brede offentlighed. 

Vi tager ansvar for vores indhold og er tilmeldt:

OM ØU

Log ind

Sektioner

KONTAKT

Facebook Linkedin Twitter

Salg: [email protected]
Jobannoncer: [email protected]
Redaktion: [email protected]
Annonce materialer: [email protected]
Bogholderi: [email protected]

Skriv til os på: [email protected].
Vi bestræber os på at besvare henvendelser indenfor 24 timer.
Telefonisk henvendelse: 70 23 40 10
Telefonerne er åbne alle hverdage fra: 10-15

Økonomisk Ugebrev A/S
CVR-nr.: 31760623
Indiakaj 10, 2. 
2100 København Ø

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.
Se tilbud

Analyser med aktiestrategi, analytikerforventninger, finansblogs og råvarer

 

Goldman Sachs 1

Goldman Sachs 2

Citibank 1

Citibank 2

Natixis

WellsFargo

Factset

Stoxx 600 (Ugentlige analytikerforventninger fra S&P)

S&P 500 (Ugentlige analytikerforventninger fra S&P)

JP Morgan

JP Morgan 2

Danske Bank – Danske Daily

Danske Bank Aktienyt

Danske Bank erhvervsobligationer

Swedbank- aktieanalyser

Danske Bank Commissioned Research

Nordea Commissioned Research

ABG Commissioned Research

SEB Commissioned Research

Jyske Bank analyser

Sydbank Aktieanalyser

T Rowe Price

Sektor rotation (US) 

MACD – aktietendens US

Nervøsitets indeks VIX

SKEW tail risk indikator

Risikovægt obl/ aktier (FAGIX:VUSTX)

Itraxx Crossover (Europa)

MACD – Aktietendens (DAX)

MACD Aktietendens Shanghai

High Yield Credit Risk (USA)

Finansblogs

Zerohedge

Alphaville

Råvarer

Handelsbanken

Scotiabank

Goldmoney

Bullionstar (guld)

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank