Stadig mere tyder på, at den globale økonomi bevæger sig mod en lettere opbremsning, hvor det aktuelle billede er stort set nulvækst. Bag denne udvikling ligger, at USA’s økonomi fortsat bremser klart op, mens kinesisk økonomi bevæger sig mod lavere vækst end tidligere. Europæisk økonomi ser fortsat stærkest ud, men der er alene tale om en udvikling fra noget, der ligner nulvækst, til svag positiv vækst. Hertil kommer, at de seneste data for Europas store økonomi, nemlig Tyskland, viser meget blandede signaler.
Da tysk økonomi aktuelt synes at være afgørende for europæisk økonomi, og USA ikke ser ud til at være til meget hjælp, sætter vi her ekstra fokus på Tyskland: For det første viser de seneste data fra de tyske indkøbschefer, IFO, at de positive forventninger fortsat er intakte, men at vurderingen af den aktuelle situation er nu i tilbagegang. IFO skriver i den seneste melding, at ”in manufacturing the business climate indicator rose somewhat. Manufacturers’ assessments of the current business situation were slightly less favourable than last month. The six-month business outlook improved, however, reaching its highest level since August 2014. International business remains a key driver. Very good assessments of the current business situation were scaled back somewhat, but the outlook continued to improve.”
For det andet viser de seneste data fra Markits PMI også fremgang for tysk erhvervsliv. Men det er alene serviceindustrien, som trækker frem. Fremstillingsindustrien står i stampe lige over en flad vurdering. Markit skriver om den seneste vurdering, at ”february data signalled the second successive monthly rise in new orders placed with German private sector companies, following a short downturn at the end of last year. The increase in new work was the most marked in five months, but below levels seen throughout much of 2014. Some panellists linked increased client demand to a weaker euro, improving economic conditions and a pick-up in new export work. Indeed, manufacturing companies reported increased client demand from foreign markets in February. The rate of growth was, however, marginal.”
For kinesisk økonomi synes udviklingen fortsat at være underdrejet, og den igangværende kinesiske kongres erkender, at væksten bliver på laveste niveau i 25 år – omkring eller under 7 procent. Markit skriver, at “The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 50.1 in the flash reading for February, up from 49.7 in January. Domestic demand firmed while new export orders contracted for the first time since April 2014. Both input and output prices remain in contraction. We believe more policy easing is still warranted at the current stage to support growth.”
Endelig er det tydelige opbremsningstegn i USA’s økonomi. Seneste data fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer i ISM viser, at den fremadrettede indikator for ordreindgangen er ved at gå helt i stå. ISM skriver, at “February PMI® registered 52.9 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from January’s reading of 53.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 52.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the reading of 52.9 percent in January. Comments from the panel express a growing level of concern over the West Coast dock slowdown, negatively impacting exports and imports and requiring workarounds and added costs.”
