Globalt KonjunkturBarometer: Økonomisk Ugebrevs KonjunkturBarometer for den Globale Økonomi viser i den aktuelle opdatering første minusscore i flere år. Scoren falder fra 0,1 i den seneste opdatering til minus 0,3, i det samlede udfaldsrum mellem minus to og plus to. Samlet set er vurderingen altså tæt på nul, hvilket stort set svarer til den seneste opgørelse for PMI-indikatoren for den globale erhvervstillid fra Markit. Markit skriver om erhvervstilliden i december 2014, at ”growth of global economic output eased to a 14-month low in December, according to the latest PMI surveys, as rates of expansion slowed in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index which is produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.3 in December, down slightly from 53.1 in November. The level of the headline index has fallen in each month since hitting a near three-and-a-half year high in July.”
Gennemgangen af de ti signaler i Økonomisk Ugebrevs konjunkturbarometer viser, at væksten er under stabilisering i Europa, seneste med nulvækst i Tyskland i fjerde kvartal. Kinesisk økonomi bremser tilsyneladende op, mens også USA’s økonomi bremser op, men fra et meget højere udgangspunkt. De seneste erhvervstillidsmålinger fra de regionale centralbanker viser over en bred kam lavere erhvervstillid. Også ISM for amerikansk erhvervstillid indikerer lavere vækst i december end i de foregående måneder. Mest opsigtsvækkende er dog, at den pålidelige ledende indikator fra ECRI nu har indikeret opbremsning i USA’ økonomi de seneste tolv uger, og den ledende indikator står nu på den største minusscore siden februar 2012, altså i næsten tre år. Vi ser dette som en meget klar og entydig forudsigelse af, at opbremsningen i USA nu for alvor begynder at tage fart.
Samtidig ser det ud til, at kinesisk økonomi fortsætter med at tabe kraft. Seneste PMI-måling er faldet lige under den neutrale værdi på 50. Markit skriver at ”operating conditions in the manufacturing economy posted at 49.6 in December, down from 50.0 in November and the first deterioration in operating conditions since May. That said, the rate of deterioration was only marginal. The weaker PMI reading was partly a result of a renewed fall in new business volumes placed at Chinese manufacturers in December. Though only slight, it was the first reduction in new orders since April. Data suggested that the decline was largely driven by softer domestic demand, as new export work rose for the eighth month in a row and at a slightly quicker rate than in November.”
Eneste lystegn lige nu syns at være tysk økonomi, hvor IFO-indikatoren nu i to måneder har indikeret en positiv vending: IFO skriver, at ”in manufacturing the business climate continued to improve. Firms only slightly scaled back their assessments of the current business situation. After three months of negative figures, the business outlook for the next half year turned positive again in December. Exports continue to support German manufacturing. In wholesaling the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. This was particularly due to far more optimistic expectations, while wholesalers assessed the current business situation as less favourable. In retailing, by contrast, the business climate clouded over.”
