Den finansielle nervøsitet trak ned på den samlede score på det globale konjunkturbarometer i seneste opdatering for tre uger siden. Som bekendt er den finansielle verden næsten tilbage i det nærmest sorgløse sport, som var gældende for halvanden måned siden, før nervøsiteten satte ind. I denne opdatering stiger den samlede score fra minus 0,5 til minus 0,1, hvilket især afspejler ny fremgang i de signaler, som vedrører USA.
For det første er der efter et tilbageslag i forrige måned nu igen fremgang i Conference Boards forbrugertillid i USA. “Consumer confidence, which had declined in September, rebounded in October. A more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation. Looking ahead, consumers have regained confidence in the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, and are more optimistic about their future earnings potential. With the holiday season around the corner, this boost in confidence should be a welcome sign for retailers,” oplyser Conference Board. For det andet er der efter nogle måneders udfladning også igen solid fremgang i Conference Boards ledende indikator: ““The LEI picked up in September, after no change in August, and the strengths among its components have been very widespread over the past six months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. The outlook for improving employment and further income growth are expected to support the moderate expansion in the U.S economy for the remainder of the year.”
Videre hedder det, at ““The financial markets are reflecting turmoil and unease, but the data on the leading indicators continue to suggest moderate growth n the short-term,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.” Samtidig kom der forleden ganske solide data for BNP-væksten i USA for tredje kvartal, selvom andre makroøkonomisk nøgletal for blandt andet privatforbrug, ordreindgang for kapitalgoder og ejerboligmarkedet ikke har været overvældende gode. Det bør dog også bemærkes, at den vigtige ISM-indikator fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer i den seneste opdatering viste et markant fald i den vigtige delindikator for ordreindgang. Vi bemærker, at den vigtige ledende ECRI-indikator nu er kørt ned på det laveste niveau siden august 2012, og denne indikator har historisk vist sig at være foran stort set alle andre ledende indikatorer. Det store spørgsmål er fortsat, om der er nok styrke i USA’s økonomi til at trække Europa og Asien med frem. Indtil videre tyder det ikke på, at der tilfældet.
Eksempelvis fortsætter tyske IFO med at falde tilbage: “Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again. In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated significantly. Assessments of the current business situation were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally higher than the long-term average. (…) Capacity utilisation rates fell by 0.3 percentage points to 83.7 percent. Export business expectations, however, was the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence,” skriver IFO i den seneste opdatering.
