Q3 in-line, but supported by profits in Copenhagen
New 2025 plan means higher costs in the mid-term
We suspend our price range until the capital issue is final
New pre-paid packages looks to support high fleet activity
GreenMobility delivered Q3 revenue of DKK 10m (vs. ABGSCe of DKK 11m), with better-than-expected EBITDA of DKK -6m (+48% vs. ABGSCe at DKK -9m), and EBIT of DKK -10m (19% vs. ABGSCe at DKK -12m). Overall, GreenMobility performed well from July to September. Copenhagen achieved profits of DKK 350k and DKK 300k during August and September, offsetting the overall start-up costs for the company. In terms of key performance indicators, GreenMobility achieved 40% growth in customers and an impressive 45 minutes of average trip length (Q3’19: 32 minutes, Q2’20e: 35 minutes). The number of trips was down 3% y-o-y, however, which is explained by Vy taking over Oslo, which was included in the numbers last year (CPH grew 11% y-o-y and Aarhus grew 48% q-o-q). We think that the average minute price stayed consequentially constant at DKK ~1.7. Overall, revenue per car was in-line with our DKK 12k estimate, despite GreenMobility introducing packages which have led to longer and fewer trips per customer. Trips per customer was 1.6 in the quarter (Q3’19: 2.3, Q2’20e: 1.7), which was +6% vs our estimate.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.