Fra ISM- læs hele meddelelsen her
New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing at Slower Rate; Backlog Same
Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing at Faster Rate; Exports and Imports Growing
(Tempe, Arizona) — (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March, and the overall economy grew for the 107th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The March PMI® registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 61.9 percent, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the February reading of 64.2 percent.
The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 1 percentage point decrease compared to the February reading of 62 percent. The Employment Index registered 57.3 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the February reading of 59.7 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.6 percent, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the February reading of 61.1 percent.
The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the February reading of 56.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 78.1 percent in March, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the February reading of 74.2 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 25th consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength.
Demand remains robust, with the New Orders Index at 60 or above for the 11th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index at its lowest level since July 2011. The Backlog of Orders Index continued a 14-month expansion with its highest reading since May 2004, when it registered 63 percent. Consumption, described as production and employment, continues to expand, with indications that labor and skill shortages are affecting production output.
Inputs, expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports, were negatively impacted by weather conditions; Asian holidays; lead time extensions; steel and aluminum disruptions across many industries; supplier labor issues; and transportation difficulties due to driver and equipment shortages. Export orders remained strong, supported by a weaker U.S. currency.
The Prices Index is at its highest level since April 2011, when it registered 82.6 percent. In March, price increases occurred across 17 of 18 industry sectors. Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains are still struggling to keep up.”
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 reported growth in March, in the following order: Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The only industry reporting a decrease during the period is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING…
- “Supply constraints, extended lead times, capacity constraints [and the like], particularly in the electronics components markets, continue to frustrate and drain needed resources, have delayed production schedules and, in some cases, caused missed or delayed sales opportunities.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “International demand is strong for our products in all regions. We are seeing constraints in multiple chemical supply chains due to increased global demand. We are concerned about the impact of tariff and trade wars on demand, but at this time, [there are] no signals that global demand is slowing.” (Chemical Products)
- “Production targets continue to be a struggle due to shortages of globally sourced components. Many subtier components are in short supply for multiple OEMs.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “In the U.S., we continue to struggle with finding carriers and drivers for shipments.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Much concern in the industry regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs recently [imposed]. This is causing panic buying, driving the near-term prices higher and [leading to] inventory shortages for non-contract customers.” (Machinery)
- “New tariffs are causing concern across the supply chain. Full impact will take a few weeks to reveal itself.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- “Significant price increases in the steel commodity due to 232 [the tariffs]. The price increases will begin to impact our company’s performance.” (Primary Metals)
- “Overall, incoming orders are picking up, and supplier pricing is increasing in some commodities.” (Textile Mills)
- “Hiring continues to slowly increase from February into March and capital spending was allowed a small increase. Oil market conditions have improved and continue to stabilize.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
MARCH 2018
| Index | Series Index Mar | Series Index Feb | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMI® | 59.3 | 60.8 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 19 |
| New Orders | 61.9 | 64.2 | -2.3 | Growing | Slower | 27 |
| Production | 61.0 | 62.0 | -1.0 | Growing | Slower | 19 |
| Employment | 57.3 | 59.7 | -2.4 | Growing | Slower | 18 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 60.6 | 61.1 | -0.5 | Slowing | Slower | 18 |
| Inventories | 55.5 | 56.7 | -1.2 | Growing | Slower | 3 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 42.0 | 43.7 | -1.7 | Too Low | Faster | 18 |
| Prices | 78.1 | 74.2 | +3.9 | Increasing | Faster | 25 |
| Backlog of Orders | 59.8 | 59.8 | 0.0 | Growing | Same | 14 |
| New Export Orders | 58.7 | 62.8 | -4.1 | Growing | Slower | 25 |
| Imports | 59.7 | 60.5 | -0.8 | Growing | Slower | 14 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 107 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Slower | 19 | |||
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Commodities Up in Price Aluminum (17); Caustic Soda (9); Cobalt; Copper (5); Corrugate (18); Freight (2); Resin Based Products (2); Steel; Steel — Cold Rolled (3); Steel — Fabricated & Machined Parts (2); Steel — Galvanized (3); Steel — Hot Rolled (16); and Steel — Scrap (4).
Commodities Down in Price
None (2).
Commodities in Short Supply
Capacitors (9); Resistors (5); and Silicone.
The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 19th consecutive month, led by continued expansion in new orders, production activity, employment and inventories, with suppliers continuing to struggle delivering to demand,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March PMI® indicates growth for the 107th consecutive month in the overall economy and the 19th straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for March (59.3 percent) corresponds to a 4.9 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | PMI® |
|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | 59.3 |
| Feb 2018 | 60.8 |
| Jan 2018 | 59.1 |
| Dec 2017 | 59.3 |
| Nov 2017 | 58.2 |
| Oct 2017 | 58.5 |
| Month | PMI® |
|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | 60.2 |
| Aug 2017 | 59.3 |
| Jul 2017 | 56.5 |
| Jun 2017 | 56.7 |
| May 2017 | 55.5 |
| Apr 2017 | 55.3 |
60.8
55.3
NEW ORDERS
ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 61.9 percent in March, which is a decrease of 2.3 percentage points when compared to the 64.2 percent reported for February, indicating growth in new orders for the 27th consecutive month. “New orders expansion continues at a strong pace — slower compared to February’s reading, but still at or above 60 percent for the 11th straight month. Customer Inventories remain too low, and backlog expansion maintained high levels,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
Fifteen of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in March, listed in the following order: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery. The only industry reporting a decrease in new orders in March compared to February is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.
| New Orders | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | 43.3 | 48.0 | 8.6 | +34.7 | 61.9 |
| Feb 2018 | 40.6 | 50.9 | 8.5 | +32.1 | 64.2 |
| Jan 2018 | 35.2 | 54.3 | 10.5 | +24.7 | 65.4 |
| Dec 2017 | 35.3 | 56.5 | 8.1 | +27.2 | 67.4 |
PRODUCTION
ISM®’s Production Index registered 61 percent in March, which is a decrease of 1 percentage point when compared to the 62 percent reported for February, indicating growth in production for the 19th consecutive month. “Production expansion continues, with the index at 10 straight months over 60 percent. Activity appears to be stabilizing at high rates as the spring/summer selling season approaches. However, labor constraints and supply chain disruptions will continue to prevent or limit maximum production potential,” says Fiore. An index above 51.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The 14 industries reporting growth in production during the month of March — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The two industries reporting a decrease in production in March compared to February are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Textile Mills.
