JP Morgan mener, at investorerne må fokusere på kvalitetsselskaber, der har en høj indtjening og en lille gæld, primært i high tech, sundhed og forbrugsvirksomheder. Det skyldes, at markedet stadig vil være præget af volatilitet, og det største problem er, at der stadig mangler en indikation af, hvordan økonomien i samfundet udvikler sig. Som JP Morgan skriver, der har i første halvår været “a lack of guidance.” Det gælder også virksomhedrnes egne meddelelser. Der kan komme en større afklaring i halvårsregnskaberne, der fremlægges i juli.
Uddrag fra JP Morgan:
Thought of the week
Lack of guidance has been a persistent theme throughout the first half of 2020.
It started in March when the Federal Reserve (Fed) failed to release its Summary of
Economic Projections (SEP) due to uncertainty, was followed by the withdrawal of, and lack of, 2020 earnings guidance from S&P 500 companies, as only around 20% of companies provided guidance in 1Q20 compared to closer to 50% of companies on average, and continued when the Chinese government did not provide a numerical target for 2020 GDP growth.
However, as we saw last week with the Fed’s release of the SEP, the economic outlook is beginning to crystalize. Against this backdrop, the 2Q20 earnings season, which kicks off at the beginning of July, should provide some additional clarity, as companies provide information on their current standing, as well as guidance for the rest of the year, with the second quarter likely marking the bottom in S&P 500 quarterly profits.
While recent improvement in the economic data and some preliminary success reopening the economy has supported the outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives, it is important to recognize that right now, the market cares much more about the direction of the data, rather than the level.
However, the data itself will likely be mediocre in the medium term, and as the rate of change slows, markets will be forced to focus on the fundamentals. This suggests that volatility is not behind us, and leads to a preference for quality companies with low leverage and higher profit margins, such as those in the technology, health care and consumer staples sectors.
