Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Kinesisk Credit Impluse er vendt opad, vil øge væksten om 6-9 mdr

Morten W. Langer

lørdag 09. november 2019 kl. 9:00

Fra Saxo Bank,

We have just updated our proprietary leading indicator for the Chinese economy, and it confirms our positive narrative for the global economy.

China credit impulse, which leads the real economy by 9 to 12 months, is moving back to positive territory, currently running at minus 0.4% of GDP (chart below).

That being said, we acknowledge that China credit impulse transmission still needs to fully deliver, but we are getting more and more optimistic as a growing number of upbeat credit data over the past months tend to underline that credit push is finally transmitted to the real economy.

Since the beginning of the year, the PBoC has implemented various measures targeted to improve monetary policy transmission in a bid to prop up bank credit for SMEs, such as requiring that large banks increase SMEs loans and cut average financing costs, or cutting RRR of medium and small banks. It seems that these efforts are now beginning to bear fruit. The latest credit data released by the PBoC underscore a pick-up in medium- and long-term corporate loans to a total of 1.01 trillion yuan.

Credit transmission into GDP growth is still too slow, as some banks are saddled with bad debts which creates credit misallocation, notably fueling the property bubble, but the ongoing process, which is a long-term job, is encouraging.

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

No data was found

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank