Kommentarer til den seneste udvikling på aktiemarkederne:
Efter Brexit valget påpegede vi i flere kommentarer, at englændernes nej kan få langt større negativ betydning for hele Euro projektet end for UK. Tilliden er fremtidens EU krakelerer nu mere eller mindre, og det klare signal herpå, er det voldsomme tilbagefald i europæiske bankaktier. Bankaktierne er blevet holdt oppe af forventningerne til Bankunionen og redningsmekanismerne her, samt til en senere politisk union, der kunne “fjerne” den eskaleredende statsgæld i de sydeuropæiske lande.
EU’s Juncker holder pinagtigt fast i forestillingen om, at han fortsat skal bygge et imperium, og det sker blandt andet med trusler om, at UK ikke kan få en løsning, hvor man alene deltager i det indre marked. EU toppen er med andre ord godt i gang med ufrivilligt at rive hele projektet ned, fordi de ikke forstår hvilke kræfter, de har udløst på de finansielle markeder. De europæiske Stoxx 600 banker er de seneste dage styrtdykket, så de her om middag tester niveauet, som blev nået i dagene efter Brexit resultatet.
Centralbankernes stimulanser kan ikke lappe på det faktum., at EU nu er ved at bryde sammen, og det er det, de finansielle markeder reagerer på. Med andre ord – lige nu er det meget vanskeligt at se, hvad der skulle forhindret noget, der ligner et aktiekrak.
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Based on overnight analyst quotes, the euphoria is certainly gone by now: “Everyone is trying to react to a situation we’ve never been in before,” said Stewart Richardson, chief investment officer at RMG Wealth Management in London. “We’ve had shocks to the system before, but we haven’t had one like this. And we won’t know the answers for a long time.”
Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager with Japan Asia Securities, also opined saying that there are “fears the global economy will worsen due to Europe. The U.K.’s economic outlook is blurred with uncertainty and the pound’s recent weakness is likely to encourage speculative buying in the yen.”
After rallying last week on bets central banks will work to limit the fallout from Britain’s referendum, global equities are retreating again as the knock-on effects become evident and as central bank credibility and efficiency is once again questioned. Three asset managers froze withdrawals from U.K. real-estate funds on Tuesday following a flurry of redemptions and the Bank of England relaxed capital requirements for lenders. Societe Generale SA Chairman Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said a banking crisis in Italy, stoked by the referendum, could spread to the rest of Europe and rules limiting state aid to lenders should be reconsidered.
As noted earlier, yields continue to plunge: 10-year US Treasury yields fell as much as six basis points to 1.318% and was at 1.33% at 10:44 a.m. London time. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Australia, Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. also sank to records. The strength of the gains in government bonds is leaving investors to ponder how severe the fallout from Brexit is going to be. Securities in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index, with an average life of about 10 years, yield a record-low 0.40 percent. In Germany, the 10-year bund yield fell to minus 0.205 percent, while yields on similar-maturity French and British securities reached 0.101 percent and 0.729 percent, respectively.
Expect yields to continue plunging: declining prospects of a Fed rate hike have spurred a torrent of demand for Treasuries, with almost $10 trillion of securities in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index yielding less than zero, up from about $9 trillion a week ago. In addition to experimenting with negative rates, some monetary authorities abroad are buying government debt, reducing the supply for investors who count on fixed-income assets.
“In the risk-off environment produced by international events, there is a global rush to buy super-long sovereign debt, and bonds that still offer some yield are going to be most in demand,” said Hideo Suzuki, the chief manager of foreign exchange and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. in Tokyo.
And while until recently bonds and stocks had disconnected, as of this moment, plunging yields finally means sliding stocks as well. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.7% and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.4 percent, falling for a third day, with all its industry groups declining. Automakers and insurers were the biggest losers, while Tullow Oil Plc sank 14 percent after announcing a $300 million sale of convertible bonds. The Stoxx 600 trades at around 14 times estimated earnings, near its lowest valuation since 2012 relative to the global index.
