Der er ikke noget at sige til, hvis økonomer og investorer er rundforvirrede efter dagens to målinger af erhvervstilliden i USA
PMI fra Markit indikere en vis opbremsning i USA Økonomi.
The seasonally adjusted final Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted 55.9 in October, to remain well above the neutral 50.0 threshold. However, the headline index dropped from 57.5 in September and signalled the slowest overall improvement in business conditions for three months. Weaker new business growth was the main factor weighing on the headline PMI in October. Although still strong in the context of the survey history, the latest expansion of new orders was the least marked since January (when sales were suppressed by adverse weather conditions). Softer new business growth in part reflected a subdued contribution from export sales. Latest data highlighted only a marginal rise in new work from abroad, and the rate of expansion was the slowest for three months. Output growth moderated to a seven-month low in October, but was still stronger than the post-crisis trend. Weaker new business gains also contributed to the slowest increase in backlogs of work across the manufacturing sector since January. Robust job creation continued in October, with the rate of employment growth remaining close to September’s recent peak. Survey respondents generally linked staff hiring to rising business investment, confidence towards the economic outlook and the launch of new products at their units.
Modsat trækker ISM fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer, som viste den højeste score i årevis
The October PMI® registered 59 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from September’s reading of 56.6 percent, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing. The New Orders Index registered 65.8 percent, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the 60 percent reading in September, indicating growth in new orders for the 17th consecutive month. The Production Index registered 64.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point above the September reading of 64.6 percent. The Employment Index grew for the 16th consecutive month, registering 55.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point above the September reading of 54.6 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 52.5 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the September reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in inventories for the third consecutive month. Comments from the panel generally cite positive business conditions, with growth in demand and production volumes.”
Vi ved godt, hvilken hest vi ville spille på. Ordreindgangen på varige forbrugsgoder og kapitalgoder er den seneste måned bremset hårdt op. det amerikanske boligmarked viser tydelige svaghedstegn. Den styrkede US dollar svække de amerikanske virksomheders konkurrenceevne. ECRI viser den mest negative udvikling i over to år, med minus score to uger i træk.
Hvordan skal aktiemarkedet så reagere: ja, det har det svært ved at finde ud. Hvis markedet fortsat vil belønne centralbankens stimulanser med en ny omgang QE (4), vil det løfte aktiemarkederne yderligere. Men det vil krævem at der er en udbredt tro på, at USAsø økonomi nu bremser op.
Dagens signaler skaber ikke just klarhed om dette.
