NY Fed recessionsindikator går lige i vejret

Fra Mauldin Economics:

Take the three main engines of global growth: Germany, China, and the US.

Each one is showing signs of interdependent weakness.

Not only is Germany the industrial center of Europe, it’s also China’s fourth-largest trading partner. In fact, Germany’s trade with China is more than double that of the next closest European country. Germany is very dependent on trade with China.

German growth is now the slowest in five years while the growth rate of China’s economy has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade.

Meanwhile, the US is looking less bad but hardly inspiring. Do I need to mention our escalating trade war that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has now dubbed the “New Long March?”

Take a look at this ominous chart from the Federal Reserve:

NY Fed Probability

The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability predictor is alarming for many reasons:

  • The odds of a recession have doubled in the last year.
  • The recession reading hasn’t been this high since 2008.
  • The world’s three biggest economies are struggling with what appear to be accelerating economic and trade issues.

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