The German surveys are still at robust levels, however, despite their deterioration this year.
Domestic demand, underpinned by low unemployment and strong wage growth, is likely to
remain the main source of economic growth. The weakening of manufacturing momentum,
however, suggests that we should only expect the industrial sector to contribute very slightly to
growth in the months ahead. It also suggests that overall economic growth is likely to have been
softer in Q3 than it was, on average, in H1. We expect our recently revised Q3 German GDP
growth forecast of 0.2% q/q to be confirmed by Wednesday’s Ifo survey.