PMI: Chicago erhvervstillid lavest i fire år, recessions risk øges

Fra Zerohedge

After slumping into year-end, Regional Fed surveys have (surprisingly) exploded higher this month with Richmond and Philly surveys spiking almost by the most on record.

Today’s Chicago PMI was expected to follow suit – though less excitedly – with a modest gain but instead it missed massively, plunging to its lowest since Dec 2015 – printing 42.9 vs 48.9 expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

None of the underlying components rose in December:

• Business barometer fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
• New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Employment fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Inventories fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
• Production fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

Having tumbled by the most in 39 years last year, Chicago PMI has no been in contraction (sub-50) for 7 months in a row – something it has not done outside of recession… ever