While this week sees the peak of Q1 earnings season, it will be a generally quiet week on the macro economic front for both EM and DM, with the emphasis on the latest seasonally adjusted manufacturing sentiment surveys, US durables and Japan trade.
It’s a quiet start this morning in Europe with just German PPI due. It’s no less different in the US this afternoon with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index the only print.
The German ZEW survey will be of most focus in the European timezone on Tuesday and it remains quiet in the US with no data due out.
Things pick up on Wednesday however and we start in Asia where we get trade data due out of Japan and also inflation data out of Australia. In Europe, industrial orders and retail sales are due in Italy, consumer confidence is due out of the Euro-area and in the UK we should get the BoE minutes. Focus across the pond on Wednesday in the US will be on existing home sales and the FHFA house price index.
Thursday is flash PMI day for April where we get manufacturing readings out of Japan and China in the early morning, followed by manufacturing, services and composite prints for the Euro area, France and Germany. Business and manufacturing confidence is also due in France, while in the UK we get retail sales data. In the US on Thursday, jobless claims, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity and also the flash manufacturing PMI are all due.
We close out the week on Friday in Europe with the German IFO survey for April. In the US meanwhile, durable and capital goods orders are scheduled. With it being a fairly quiet week data wise, US earnings season will be of much focus with the calendar ramping up as 147 S&P 500 companies are due to report including Google, Facebook, P&G and Amazon. European earnings season will also kick into gear. Of course Greece will also continue to be front and centre with the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Friday in Riga.
In table format:
A detailed breakdown of the main events daily from Goldman:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US Durable Goods; Australia and UK Minutes; Eurozone Consumer Confidence; Japan Trade.
- [Monday] Japan Tertiary Industry Index; New Zealand CPI.
- [Tuesday] Australia Minutes.
- [Wednesday] Eurozone Consumer Confidence; UK Minutes; Japan Trade; Australia CPI.
- [Thursday] DM Flash Manufacturing PMI; Singapore CPI.
- [Friday] US Durable Goods; Singapore IP.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in Turkey, Hungary and Colombia; Poland Minutes; South Korea GDP, Economic Activity in Argentina and Mexico; CPI in Malaysia and South Africa.
- [Monday] Ukraine IP.
- [Tuesday] Hungary MP Decision.
- [Wednesday] CPI in Malaysia and South Africa; Turkey MP Decision.
- [Thursday] South Korea GDP; Poland Minutes; Mexico Economic Activity.
- [Friday] Argentina Economic Activity and Colombia MP Decision.
FULL CALENDAR
Monday, April 20
Events: Speech by BoC’s Poloz.
- Japan | [MAP 4] Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Feb): Consensus -0.80%, previous 1.40%
- New Zealand | CPI YoY (1Q): GS 0.10% (-0.30% qoq), consensus 0.20% (-0.20% qoq), previous 0.80% (-0.20% qoq)
- Poland | [MAP 3] Sold Industrial Output YoY (Mar): Consensus 7.20% (12.20% mom), previous 4.90% (1.30% mom)
- Ukraine | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): Consensus -20.50% (1.80% mom), previous -22.50% (-1.60% mom )
- Also interesting: [DM] US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index; Eurozone Construction Output; Spain Trade Balance; UK Rightmove House Prices [EM] Philippines BoP; Taiwan Export Orders; Poland Retail Sales.
Tuesday, April 21
Events: Speeches by ECB’s Nouy, Riksbank’s Ohlsson and RBA’s Stevens.
- Germany | [MAP 3] ZEW Survey Expectations (Apr): Consensus 55, previous 54.8
- Australia | Minutes from MP Decision: The RBA left the cash rate, expression of its strong easing bias, and the vast majority of its description of economic trends/risks unchanged at April’s Board meeting.
- Hong Kong | CPI Composite YoY (Mar): Previous 4.60%
- Hungary | MP Decision: We expect a 15bp cut (to 1.80%, in line with consensus). We also think that the MPC maintains a dovish tone and indicates further easing. But we think the MPC will remain cautious, preferring not to cut too fast, too deeply, and the policy guidance will point toward only moderate easing. We expect the MPC will justify next week’s cut by the same arguments that underpinned the decision to restart the easing cycle in March, that is lower than previously expected inflation, a benign medium-term inflation outlook, and downside risks to the forecast arising from low inflation abroad, increased risk of second-round effects of the recent decline in commodity prices, and government measures to control prices of utilities and energy. A relatively strong Forint – and the NBH’s policy preference for some gradual depreciation – should also support the MPC’s dovish thinking.
- Also interesting: [DM] Eurozone Govt Debt/GDP Ratio and ZEW Survey Expectations; Sweden Unemployment; Switzerland M3 and Unemployment Rate; Japan Leading and Coincident Index [EM] Korea 20-day Exports; Trade Balance in Israel and Argentina
Wednesday, April 22
- United States | [MAP 2] Existing Home Sales (Mar): Consensus 5.02M, previous 4.88M
- Eurozone | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence (Apr A): Consensus -2, previous -3.7
- United Kingdom | Minutes from MP Decision
- Japan | Trade Balance (Mar): GS -¥80.0B, consensus ¥6.3B, previous (r) – ¥425.0B
- Australia | CPI YoY (1Q): GS 1.10% (-0.10% qoq), consensus 1.30% (0.20% qoq), previous 1.70% (0.20% qoq)
- Malaysia | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 0.90%, consensus 0.90%, previous 0.10%
- South Africa | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 4.0%, consensus 4.10% (1.50% mom), previous 3.90% (0.60% mom)
- Turkey | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (overnight lending rate at 10.75%, the base rate (1-week repo) at 7.50% and the overnight borrowing rate at 7.25%, in line with consensus). We also think that there is a non-trivial chance of some additional macro-prudential measures, aimed at improving domestic FX market liquidity conditions. In particular, the Central Bank might increase the Reserve Option Coefficients (ROC) and the interest rates paid over TRY reserve requirements held at the CBRT. We also expect the bank to signal that it stands ready to further tighten domestic TRY liquidity conditions.
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications and FHFA Mortgage Applications; Denmark Consumer Confidence; Italy Retail Sales; Australia Westpac Leading Index [EM] Malaysia Foreign Reserves; Taiwan Unemployment; Turkey Consumer Confidence; Brazil CA and Foreign Direct Investment; Colombia Trade Balance.
Thursday, April 23
Events: Speeches by ECB’s Praet and RBNZ’s McDermott, Philippines Monetary Board Meeting Highlights.
- United States | New Home Sales MoM (Mar): GS -3.0%, consensus -5.40%, previous 7.80%
- DMs | Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): US (Consensus 56, previous 55.7); Eurozone (Consensus 52.5, previous 52.2); France (Previous 48.8); Germany (Consensus 53, previous 52.8), Japan (Previous 50.3)
- DMs | Composite PMI (Apr P): Eurozone (GS 54.0, consensus 54.2, previous 54); France (Previous 51.5); Germany (Consensus 55.4, previous 55.4)
- DMs | Services PMI (Apr P): Eurozone (Consensus 54.4, previous 54.2); France (Previous 52.4); Germany (Consensus 55.5, previous 55.4)
- United Kingdom | [MAP 3] Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY (Mar): Previous 5.10% (0.70% mom)
- Singapore | CPI YoY (Mar): GS -0.50%, consensus -0.50%, previous -0.30% (0.10% nsa mom)
- China | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): Consensus 49.4, previous 49.6
- South Korea | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q P): GS 2.60% (0.80% sa qoq), consensus 2.30% (0.60% sa qoq), previous 2.70% (0.30% sa qoq)
- Taiwan | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Mar): GS 5.00% (-0.50% sa mom), previous 3.32%
- Poland | Minutes from MP Decision
- Mexico | [MAP 5] Economic Activity IGAE YoY (Feb): GS 2.35%, previous (r) 2.00%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims and Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity; UK PSNB; France Business/Manufacturing Confidence; Italy CA; Spain Unemployment; Switzerland Trade Balance; UK Public Sector Net Borrowing; New Zealand Consumer Confidence [EM] Hong Kong Unemployment; Mexico Core and Headline Inflation
Friday, April 24
Events: Speech by BoJ’s Nakaso.
- United States | [MAP 4] Durables Ex Transportation (Mar): GS -1.0%, consensus 0.30%, previous (r) -0.60%
- United States | Durable Goods Orders (Mar): GS -0.8%, consensus 0.70%, previous -1.40%
- United States | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Mar): GS -1.0%, consensus 0.30%, previous (r) -1.10%
- United States | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Mar): GS -0.5%, previous (r) 0.30%
- Singapore | [MAP 5] Industrial Production YoY (Mar): Consensus -7.10%, previous -3.60% (4.10% sa mom)
- Argentina | [MAP 5] Economic Activity Index YoY (Feb): GS 1.20% (0.20% mom), previous 0.00% (-0.10% mom)
- Argentina | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Mar): GS -1.60% (-0.40% mom), previous (r) -2.10% (-0.40% mom)
- Colombia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Lending Rate at 4.50%, in line with consensus).
- Also interesting: [DM] Germany IFO Business Climate Survey; Japan PPI Services and All Industry Activity Index [EM] Hong Kong Composite Interest Rate; South Korea Consumer Confidence; Philippines Inflation Report; Czech Republic Consumer Confidence; Poland Unemployment; Brazil Bank Lending; Mexico Retail Sales
Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldman
