Ugens vigtigste analyser fra finanshusene

Økonomisk Ugebrev bringer løbende uddrag fra en lang række danske og udenlandske finanshuses analyser af de finansielle markeder, makroøkonomi og temanalyser. På denne side giver vi et kort resume af de vigtigste analyser fra den forgangne uge. Økonomisk Ugebrevs analysearkiv, som kan findes her, giver direkte adgang til analyser og opdateringer fra ca. 50 danske og udenlandske finanshuse, opdelt på en stribe forskellige kategorier, bl.a. makro, fixed income, kort rente og status fra centralbankerne, FX, temaanalyser og direkte adgang til originalkilde for en stribe centrale økonomiske nøgletal. De løbende analyser bringes på ugebrev.dk.

Udsigt til en spiral af aktiebobler (Bank of Amerika): ”So is there a way out? Well, with debt set to keep rising, the only option to reduce debt to either pre-Covid levels, or even more to pre-global financial crisis levels “would require massive fiscal austerity and private sector deleveraging”, something which no self-respecting politician will ever campaign on ever again. And why take the plunge: “as long as inflation remains low and central banks keep policy rates at zero, there is no reason for such pain.” Unfortunately, as even Bank of America admits, “this is a scenario of recurring bubbles.” Link til analyse.

Nedtur i dansk økonomi i H1 2020 udraderede fire års velstandsfremgang (Handelsbanken): ”Dansk økonomi oplevede i 1. halvår en historisk dyb nedtur, der på få måneder udraderede mere end fire års fremgang i velstanden. Recessionen viste sig dog også at være historisk kort. Efter det brutale tilbageslag i det tidlige forår har vi efterfølgende – i takt med at samfundet åbnede op igen – set en hurtigere oprejsning af økonomien end tidligere frygtet, hvor bl.a. også boligmarkedet er kommet stærkt igen. På den baggrund har vi opjusteret vores forventninger til den økonomiske vækst i år, hvor vi nu venter en BNP-vækst i omegnen af -4% mod vores skøn fra april om et fald på ca. -7%.” Link til analysen.

USA: Udsigt til en ødelæggende konkursbølge, som er værre end i 2009: ”The disconnect between the all time highs in the stock market and the broader economy has never been greater and one of the places where this chasm is most glaring, is in the staggering number of major corporations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. Indeed, this year large US corporate bankruptcy filings are running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the financial crisis in 2009. According to FT calculations, as of August 17, a record 45 companies each with more than $1 billion in assets has filed for Chapter 11 this year; this compares with 38 for the same period of 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis and is more than double last year’s figure of 18 over the comparable period.” Link til analysen.

Are Yields Too Low for the Post COVID-19 World? (Citigroup): “Following a confirmed COVID-19 treatment, global yields may rise. A doubling in 10-year US Treasury yields to 1.25% in a year’s time seems likely. If Federal Reserve (Fed) rates remain at zero, the yield curve could steepen, though not far above its long-term average. Equities may rally modestly on a post COVID-19 recovery, but the performance dispersion may allow opportunities for alpha as winning and losing sectors rotate. A rotation within the equity markets benefiting beaten down cyclicals, such as Financials, could accelerate. Until better health care treatments for COVID-19 are found, certain parts of the economy – such as hospitality and travel – could remain highly depressed. Financial markets are likely to continue to have periodic bouts of fear and relief.” Link til analysen.

Vil vi altid have lave obligationsrenter? (UBS): ”What is also apparent is that total debt is increasing at a faster rate than growth in the global economy, so overall leverage (in this case debt relative to global output) is increasing. For a long time now, adding debt to the global economy has not been of obvious benefit to the overall growth rate. Part of the reason is simply that, all else being equal, more debt means more spent on debt service, which itself can be a drag on growth. Certainly higher overall systemic leverage has been a factor in central banks’ need to keep policy rates low.” Link til analysen.