Consumer Metrics skriver om analysehusets syn på USA’s aktuelle BNP vækst:
Summary and Commentary
At face value this report continues to show a strongly rebounding US economy driven by commercial fixed investments, growing inventories and surging exports. It shows a growth rate that — when coupled with largely normalized official unemployment data — indicates that we have finally reached a full recovery after the nightmare of the Great Recession. The economy apparently has reached the much sought after “escape velocity” after the unprecedented and persistent interventions by Ms. Yellen and Mr. Bernanke.
We, on the other hand, would much prefer a recovery that is driven more organically by consumers merrily disposing of increased disposable income. Before we fully buy the current euphoria from the BEA and crack open a fresh case of champagne, let’s look a few items that argue for continued caution:
— Consumers spending provided about 41% of the headline growth while representing a much larger 69% of the spending. Real per-capita disposable income has grown only 2% in aggregate since 2008. Household spending remains constrained, and a healthy savings rate indicates that the majority of consumers remain skeptical about the veracity and sustainability of this “recovery.”
— Inventories tend to revert to their means. This quarter’s inventory growth is essentially the flip side of last quarter’s contraction in what is (over the long haul) a largely zero-sum series.
— Surging exports fly in the face of softening economic growth among our major trading partners. The US has clearly won the most recent round of the ongoing currency wars, but that worm is also likely to turn.
— And lastly, a gut check: did the 2nd quarter really feel like an economy that was growing 6.3% faster than during the 1st quarter? That is either a phenomenal turnaround over just 90 days, or a sign of seriously noisy numbers momentarily pointing towards implausible and/or unsustainable growth. When presented with contradictory or wildly noisy data, we have always trusted our gut feeling.
To that last point: assuming that an economy with the size, complexity and inertia of the US economy can’t really have growth rate changes in excess of 6% over 90 days, what is the real rate of GDP growth? In fact, either averaging the trailing 4 quarters or calculating the year-over-year change over the 4 quarters gives us a 2.5% real growth rate — essentially the same as the 2.3% growth in real consumer spending recorded over that same time span. When the BEA’s overly modest deflators are taken into consideration, an annual growth rate closer to 2% emerges — with per-capita GDP growth further diluted by a growing population to 1.1%. Those are certainly a more plausible growth rates that cut through most of the noise in the BEA’s headlines and more closely align with our gut feelings.
