Uddrag fra Steno Signals:
If earnings expectations are in la-la-land (which is almost always the case), it may not matter if the CPI keeps disinflating. The 1972-1984 playbook shows how equities bounced right as the CPI peaked, even as the earnings outlook deteriorated markedly at the same time.If the market sniffs out an inflation-driven pause or a pivot from the Fed, even before a drawdown in risk assets is seen, we may get a disinflation rally that will wrongfoot all investment banks.Chart 2. Equities tend to rally when the CPI peaks..
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