Uddrag fra SEB:
Risk of escalation in the Middle East
Global key stories
Stock markets took a leap yesterday (S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%) after Trump at lunchtime reported on productive and good talks with Iran and flagged a pause in attacks on energy and infrastructure facilities for five days. This was then denied by Iran, which also denied that it had even had talks with the United States. The stock market rise was subdued after Iran’s statement. Whether the crisis continues to escalate or if we have experienced another TACO remains to be seen. The oil price (Brent) fell steeply on the announcement to below USD 100 per barrel but has risen to over 100 in the morning. Last night, there have been reports of Iranian attacks on several countries and according to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among others, can now join the war against Iran.
This would mean a clear escalation. According to the Financial Times , Pakistan has taken on a role as a mediator and Turkey and Egypt have also helped.
Most stock markets in Asia have risen overnight. In the morning, Japanese inflation for February came in lower than expected, while the PMI declined slightly in March. Futures in Europe and the US show negative openings today.
Early signs of the effects of the war. Today, preliminary PMI figures for March are released for several key economies, including France, Germany, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. The measurement period will probably include the time after the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Although it is still early, sentiment may have been negatively affected, and we will be keeping an eye on various price indices and indices that measure delivery times.
Nordic key stories
A close race in the Danish election. Today is the election to the Folketing after Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called new elections in February. Mette Frederiksen had a tough start to the year with the US threat against Greenland, but got a boost in public opinion when she stood up to Trump, after which she called new elections. According to opinion polls, the Social Democrats are expected to be the largest party, but the parliament is divided between many small parties (the Folketing’s threshold is 2%) so some kind of coalition solution is to be expected. It is interesting that despite the current government coalition (consisting of the Social Democrats, the Liberal Party and the centrist Moderate Party), the parties have run their campaigns separately. The Social Democrats want to introduce a wealth tax, which has become a high-profile election issue.
