Fra Natixis- læs hele analysen her:
As we reach the midpoint of 2021, we’ve been asked to peer into our crystal ball and offer up some thoughts on the second half of the year. And while that crystal ball is as cloudy as ever, we’ll attempt to provide views on key macro and market issues. To be clear, these exercises are wrought with uncertainty and challenges and we would best categorize our commentary below as educated guesses.
Monetary policy moves
Inflation narrative
Robust growth despite peak
Tax hike risks
Equities favorability
Financial conditions should remain extremely loose for the remainder of 2021 – and that creates a supportive backdrop for equities. We expect the Fed to remain highly accommodative for the balance of the year, with tapering concerns being a nonevent (actual balance sheet reduction will likely hit in mid- to late 2023) and rate hikes remaining on hold well into 2022, if not early 2023. In addition, real rates remain negative, leaving few choices in terms of alternative options in which to put money where returns may be able to outpace inflation. And if we are proven wrong on our transitory inflation outlook, what is the best hedge? Equities!
As we continue to improve vaccination rates, the economy should fully embrace the economic reopen. And this means that we would expect to see consumers spend more money on the services side of the economy versus the goods side. We believe consumers want to get out and about and reengage those experiences that they missed during work from home. That shift should help the service side begin to accelerate, with profits increasing meaningfully in the coming quarters. We see this occurring in the current retail sales and labor market data already.
We also see the global recovery taking place in a staggered fashion. The US has seen the best progress in terms of vaccination levels from a regional perspective thus far. Europe stumbled but appears to be back on track. And Asia has been slow to see vaccination rates reach critical levels, with penetration rates in Japan, for example, extremely low, followed by emerging markets. Against this backdrop, the reopening of the global economy seems to be happening in stages. We could see the equity leadership baton be passed from the US to Europe in the coming months as the Eurozone recovery roadmap begins to unfold in a similar fashion to what we’ve seen here in the US. Ultimately, this rotation could finally make its way to emerging markets, but with a somewhat bifurcated response where Asia lags the rest of the emerging world.
In the near term, cyclicals should continue to benefit. In the broader context, value should perform better than growth and small-caps should outpace large-caps. This doesn’t mean we should completely abandon growth stocks and by default tech, which is a large allocation within that growth basket. We continue to highlight the fact that not much has changed over the past 12 months that warrants a sharply higher long-term growth regime. We expect the global backdrop to return to its pre-Covid trajectory – modest growth with modest inflation. This backdrop should see a rotation back to the search for what is scarce – growth. In this environment, tech should reassert its leadership position.
Lastly, we remind investors that stocks go up in bull markets and they go down in bull markets. Corrections are par for the course. We should certainly expect at least one 10% or more correction between now and year-end. However, corrections do not signal an end to the up-trend. Until the US Federal Reserve becomes restrictive (which is still a long way off), we expect equities to finish 2021 at levels higher than where we are today.
