Resume af teksten:
Den seneste undersøgelse fra Den Europæiske Centralbank viser, at global usikkerhed ikke har påvirket efterspørgslen efter lån eller kreditstandarder markant i andet kvartal. Investeringerne ser ud til at klare sig stabilt, og der er ingen umiddelbar grund til at overveje en rentenedsættelse i juli. Selvom usikkerheden er steget, viser undersøgelsen, at appetitten på lån blandt virksomheder og forbrugere stadig er til stede. Efterspørgslen efter lån fra virksomheder er svagt forbedret, især i Tyskland og Italien, mens Frankrig har oplevet et fald. Husstande viser fortsat en stigende efterspørgsel efter lån, drevet af et stærkt boligmarked med gunstige rentevilkår. ECB kan derfor undlade hastværk og bruge sommeren på at overvåge udviklingen i økonomien, inflationen og geopolitiske forhold.
Fra ING:
Global uncertainty hasn’t affected loan demand or credit standards too much in the second quarter, which means that the outlook for investment is not currently deteriorating. Then again, this still gives us a view of investments muddling through
Today’s survey confirms that there’s no urgency for a July rate cut, providing some relief for the European Central Bank over the summer months
Global uncertainty has increased significantly in recent months, but the European Central Bank’s lending survey does not indicate a material drop in borrowing appetite among businesses or consumers. Banks are also not tightening credit standards significantly on the back of it.
In fact, loan demand from corporates shows a small improvement, and expectations for the current quarter are again modestly better than they were for the second quarter. The breakdown of the four major economies shows that Germany and Italy see improvements in loan demand, while France sees a notable decline. Loan demand for fixed investments is not contributing positively to total loan demand, though, which is mainly because of a drop in France.
For households, there continues to be a sharp increase in loan demand as the housing market continues to show strength. Households consider the level of interest rates favourable and think housing market prospects are positive. This adds to housing market strength for the months ahead.
For the ECB, this adds to the view that there is no urgency for a July cut. The central bank can take the summer off and see how the economy, inflation and geopolitical drivers of both develop. With all the uncertainty in the economy, that will be a relief to the Governing Council.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
