Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Hent udgivelser
Nyt magasin Danmarks 100 Rigeste: Se danmarksrigeste.dkNYT
Hent udgivelser
Log ud Log ind
Køb
Morten W. Langer
Ansvarshavende chefredaktør

Velkommen til Økonomisk Ugebrev

Vores erfarne journalister stiller hver dag skarpt på ...

  • Dybdeborende journalistik om finans, ledelse og investering
  • At fokusere på nytteværdi og skarphed med en kritisk kant
  • At levere specialiserede nyhedsbreve til toppen af erhvervslivet
Læs mere om Økonomisk Ugebrev

Gratis white papers:

Bestyrelsesuddannelser
Bestyrelsesnetværk og redskaber
CEO-udsyn 2025-2030
Talentudvikling
Danmarks 100 Rigeste 2025NYT
Finans

Finanshus: Stærk tysk fremgang i industriproduktion nedtoner frygt for en recession

Morten W. Langer

tirsdag 07. juli 2026 kl. 10:09

Fra ING:

 

German industry defies recession fears in May

Surprisingly strong industrial production defies recession fears as optimism is gradually returning to the eurozone’s largest economy

Industrial production is defying recession fears. In May, German industrial production increased by 0.9% month-on-month, from 0.2% MoM in April. On the year, industrial production was unchanged. The May increase was mainly driven by stronger production in the automotive industry (+3.6% MoM) but also increasing activity in the construction sector (+0.9% MoM).

Despite the war in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, industrial production is proving resilient. In the first two months of the second quarter, industrial production is actually up, not down. Some industries or companies actually seem to have benefited from the war in the Middle East, as Asian competitors were hit harder by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Optimism is gradually returning

Looking ahead, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as easing geopolitical tensions (or simply the fact that everyone has started to accept that geopolitical tensions are part of the new normal), should bring a mild boost to the German economy. However, it won’t be a huge boost but rather a mild tailwind. Despite some improvement, production expectations in industry remain weak, and order books are only very gradually filling up again. More importantly, the lack of equipment as an impediment to industrial activity is increasingly a problem, hinting at potential new supply chain frictions. And these supply chain frictions are not only related to the Middle East but will increasingly be related to the European heat wave and drought, having reduced water levels in crucial waterways.

At the same time, the odds are increasing that Germany could break free from the current stranglehold of unfavourable exogenous shocks and reform paralysis. Even if it almost looks like a law of nature that after the Middle East war and the energy price shock, a new exogenous shock will be lingering somewhere, at least the reform paralysis has ended. Admittedly, at least for analysts, last week’s reform package could have been bolder, but presenting a package of health care and pension reform, deregulation and less bureaucracy, garnered with some labour market and tax reform, sends a strong signal that the government is willing (and able) to act.

It is not a package that will morph a stagnating economy into a booming economy overnight. It’s a package that also lacks a strategy for affordable energy and tax relief for companies. But it is a package that could create the preconditions, the framework, for future growth. The healthcare and pension reform will put public finances on a sustainable footing in light of demographic change, and the other structural measures could loosen the brakes for future growth.

Add to that the ongoing fiscal stimulus for infrastructure and defence, and the narrative for German growth turns more optimistic. It seems as if Germany has finally understood that economic success does not return simply or effortlessly. All in all, developments of the last weeks have provided tentative signs of optimism – for a change.

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Bliv opdateret på aktiemarkedets bevægelser, skarpe indsigter
og nyeste tendenser fra Økonomisk Ugebrev – helt gratis.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev.  Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik. Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Relaterede nyheder

Jobannoncer

Vis alle jobs
Økonomichef til Børne-og Ungdomsforvaltningen i Københavns Kommune
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Afdelingschef til Erhvervs- og Handelsafdelingen
Grønland
Kontorchef med ansvar for kredittilsynet i de største danske koncerner
Region Hovedstaden
Head of Finance til Ahlsell Danmark A/S
Region Hovedstaden
Direktør til Revisorgruppen Danmark
Region Midt

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.
Se tilbud

Analyser med aktiestrategi, enkeltaktier, consensus, crypto og råvarer

 

Goldman Sachs 1

Goldman Sachs 2

Citibank 1

Citibank 2

Natixis

WellsFargo

Factset

Stoxx 600 (Ugentlige analytikerforventninger fra S&P)

S&P 500 (Ugentlige analytikerforventninger fra S&P)

JP Morgan

JP Morgan 2

Danske Bank – Danske Daily

Danske Bank Aktienyt

Danske Bank erhvervsobligationer

Swedbank- aktieanalyser

Crypto:  LSGE Digital Assets

Crypto: Fidelity Digital

Crypto: Binance (måned)

Crypto: Nasdaq Insights

Crypto: Coinbase Research

Crypto: Citi Digital Assets 

Crypto: Franklin Templeton- Digital Assets

Danske Bank Commissioned Research

Nordea Commissioned Research

ABG Commissioned Research

SEB Commissioned Research

Jyske Bank analyser

Sydbank Aktieanalyser

T Rowe Price

Sektor rotation (US) 

MACD – aktietendens US

Nervøsitets indeks VIX

SKEW tail risk indikator

Risikovægt obl/ aktier (FAGIX:VUSTX)

Itraxx Crossover (Europa)

MACD – Aktietendens (DAX)

MACD Aktietendens Shanghai

High Yield Credit Risk (USA)

Finansblogs

Zerohedge

Alphaville

Råvarer

Handelsbanken

Scotiabank

Goldmoney

Bullionstar (guld)

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank