Formue

Finanshuse: Bears Giving up?

Let’s not forget how much we de-rated ahead of the latest squeeze…..S&P 500 has seen the second sharpest P/E de-rating of 6.7x (vs. average of 4.5x compression seen during prior recessions).

JPM

SPX – levels to watch

SPX is up 420 points from June lows. Bear market rally or something else in the making we leave to you to decide, but 4100 is the first resistance to watch, and then the 4150. Note the 100 day coming in around the 4125 level. One of the problems for bears here is the fact very few are long…or at least not long enough (more here).

Refinitiv

Bears giving up?

Latest AAII sentiment reading shows bears have dropped big recently. Note most votes are pre the latest Fed rally. Bulls remain at relatively low levels, but that could easily change should this squeeze continue.

Refinitiv

Systematically not long

The computer and model driven crowd has experienced huge agony and p/l pain during this latest market squeeze. They have all been running extremely light equity longs. Good luck to those that have had to chase longs in this poor liquidity environment. Mission impossible…

Under the hood zzztress

The VIX 2/8 months futures spread continues coming down. Let’s see how things develop from here, but there is very little stress showing at the moment.

Refinitiv

Oil isn’t pricing a recession according to JPM

The investment bank writes that oil isn’t pricing a recessions, but that risk is growing: “…while historical evidence suggests that demand is well supported as long as global growth remains positive, oil price tends to fall in all recessions by 30 to 40%. Under a 1.5% global growth scenario, global oil demand will grow by 0.6 mbd in 2023, 0.6 mbd below our current forecast. This would result in a 1.4 mbd surplus in 2023 with stocks normalizing back to 2015- 2019 average levels by the end of 2023.” Their base case remains intact: “global oil price in the low-$100s in 2H22 and high-$90s in 2023.”

Chart shows oil vs US 10 year breakevens.

Refinitiv

Oil – then vs now

Gasoline demand does go up during the driving season…

MPAS

Oil ain’t buying it

Oil is not “buying” the latest move in SPX.

Refinitiv

Retail Army: back with a vengeance

Retail traders net bought $4.3B of cash equities this past week, 0.8 standard deviations above 1Y average. This is the first time weekly retail net buying exceeded annual average since early April. At the single stock level, retail traders were net buyers of Technology (+1.4z) and Growth (+1.5z). In options space, retail traders net bought $688MM of delta.

JPM Retail Radar

Bitcoin – still lagging tech

NASDAQ is basically back to the pre mid June sell off levels. BTC on the other hand is way lower. The correlation perfection between these two assets is less perfect these days, but imagine BTC starts closing some of the wide gap. One way to play a possible catch up trade is via call spreads as your max loss is known. Vols have come down lately, and despite not being dirt cheap, call spreads aren’t overly expensive as skew has picked up. Second chart shows the 1 month implied vs realized vols. Third chart shows the 1 mth 25 delta skew.

Refinitiv

Genesisvolatility

[postviewcount]

Relaterede nyheder

Jobannoncer

CEO for Rejsekort & Rejseplan A/S

Region H

Controller/økonomimedarbejder – få den brede vifte af økonomiopgaver

Region H

Finance/Business Controller til Anzet A/S

Region Sjælland

Liftra ApS i Aalborg søger en Finance Controller med ”speciale” i Transfer Pricing

Region Nordjylland

Annonce

Hent udgivelser

Hent udgivelser

Gratis white papers:

Hent udgivelser

Gratis white papers:

Finanshuse: Bears Giving up?

Morten W. Langer

Relaterede nyheder

Teknisk: S&P Future på vej ned mod test af 5000 mærke igen, trenden er nedad

Meta styrtdykker 15 % efter varsling om højere AI investeringer fremadrettet

Bankernes overskudsfest toner ned, udlån falder

Jobannoncer

Mere fra ØU Formue

Dybdegående og original
journalistik siden 1994

OM ØU

Sektioner

KONTAKT

Log ind

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Analyser med aktiestrategi, analytikerforventninger, finansblogs og råvarer

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Annonce

Hent udgivelser

Hent udgivelser

Gratis white papers:

Hent udgivelser

Gratis white papers:

Finanshuse: Bears Giving up?

Morten W. Langer

Relaterede nyheder

Teknisk: S&P Future på vej ned mod test af 5000 mærke igen, trenden er nedad

Meta styrtdykker 15 % efter varsling om højere AI investeringer fremadrettet

Bankernes overskudsfest toner ned, udlån falder

Jobannoncer

Mere fra ØU Formue

Dybdegående og original journalistik siden 1994

OM ØU

Sektioner

KONTAKT

Log ind

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Analyser med aktiestrategi, analytikerforventninger, finansblogs og råvarer

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Dybdegående og original
journalistik siden 1994