Formue

Finanshuse: Inflationen peger igen nedad, og aktierne er nu historisk billige

Uddrag fra Market Ear, Bernstein, Goldman og Refinitiv

Should we see supply driven inflation ease soon?

TS Lombard

Citi writes that their global supply chain pressure index has eased a lot in August. We are now at the lowest levels since late 2020. Central drivers of inflation are basically easing according to the investment bank. They also write: “our empirical analysis suggests that goods inflation could fall rapidly in coming months. While uncertainty around such estimates is high, at a minimum the easing of supply chain pressures is an encouraging step in the fight against inflation.”

SPX – time to bounce?

SPX looks to be bouncing on the 3900 level again. Past few candles have all been possible reversal candles: hammer, inverted hammer. 3900 is a big support level and the “must hold” area. Let’s see how this develops from here, but a bounce would frustrate a lot of people as fear is high. Watch closely should the 50 day cross the 100 day moving average.

Refinitiv

Semis cheap

Infineon forward P/E multiple near 10-year low.

Bernstein

Semis shorted

MS’ PB Content team shows that Semis short exposure is in the 99th percentile vs. data back to 2010.

Morgan Stanley

HYG knew…does it know again?

Regular readers of TME are familiar with the fact the HYG refused to buy the last squeeze as it underperformed the SPX big time. The gap between the two remains wide, but the delta is what matters (i.e the SPX caught up). Watch the HYG closely here as it could decide making a short term local low.

Refinitiv

Good luck trading size

Liquidity has fallen of a cliff lately. You can’t trade big positions without impacting the price massively. This works both ways….

Real rates – extreme edition

In case you haven’t paid attention, but the move in real yields has been huge lately. Barclays points out that the move is “…not far from the kind of moves witnessed in the Taper tantrum episode during the summer of 2013”.

Barclays

Gold – you price it in dollars

Gold (inv) vs DXY needs little commenting. The crowd still believes inflation is the driver of gold, but it is real rates and the dollar that drive the shiny metal. Barclays point out using options makes sense in order to manage risk (and we agree). Their options logic goes; “GLD put spreads take advantage of relatively steep downside skew. Alternatively, selling OTM GDX calls further reduces upfront premium, while leveraging the fact that, unlike GLD, GDX upside skew is historically flat.”

Refinitiv

Barclays

Rolling those oil puts?

On June 16 we suggested looking at the downside set up for oil (here). We wrote: “We like to ask the “what if” question and then look for the “convexity” opportunity. Oil is one of those “what if” questions at the moment.” We suggested looking at relatively cheap “optionality” in July via either put spreads or just outright long puts.

Oil is breaking below huge levels today, and we can recycle the same we have been saying over past months in oil: “make sure to adjust the strikes, i.e roll them into new strikes in order to “max” out the options “juice”. One strategy is to book some profits, and roll into new lower strikes.”

Refinitiv

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