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Finanshuse: Magnificent 7-selskaber står foran aftagenes overskudsvækst

Morten W. Langer

tirsdag 26. november 2024 kl. 13:13

Uddrag fra Market Ear/Goldman /JPM/ Datatream

Performance of Magnificent 7 vs. S&P 493

Mag 7 account for one-half of the 57% rise in S&P 500 index since the end of 2022.

Source: Goldman

 

The Mag-7 have achieved stellar growth for a good reason

They have outperformed the index for a good reason – they have generated much stronger profit growth.

Source: Datastream

 

End of an EPS superiority era?

GS: “We expect Mag 7 premium EPS growth to compress from 30 pp in 2024 to 6 pp in 2025”

Source: Goldman

 

More on the narrowing

JPM: “The gap in earnings growth between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 will continue to narrow”

Source: JPM

 

That tech capex boom

Feels a little too extreme. Booms lead to busts in capex cycles…

Source: Deutsche

 

MCG & Tech at the top of the trend channel

MCG & Tech earnings are slightly above their strong long-run trend channel as an AI boom adds to a typical cyclical recovery.

Source: DB

 

High PE – no problem?

MCG & Tech multiples have demonstrated very clearly that elevated multiples are not a constraint as long as earnings growth remains strong, but will that last forever?

Source: DB

 

Concentration & valuation

The valuations of these stocks have risen significantly…

Source: Compustat

 

The new Mag

Small caps beating the MAG by 5% over the past month…

Source: Refinitiv

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