Finanshuse om aktiemarkedets tilstand: Er glasset halvt fuldt, eller halvt tomt ?

2. GS PB nets show 97th percentile on a 1 year look back, also PB data shows gross creeping back up and now at 93rd percentile.

3. the often used AAIIBULL metric just hit a 1.5 year high and the CNN fear/greed speedometer remains firmly in the greed segment.

4. any uptick in volatility would/could trigger CTA and risk parity selling.

5. 85% of the S&P are in blackout and as such the buyback ‘greenshoe’ is temporarily removed from the market….(GS trading desk)

1. The cushion of consumer excess savings is being eroded, profit margins are peaking and money supply in the US and Europe keeps contracting. China could keep stalling, unless there is a significant support package unveiled.

2. The Fed is set to stay “higher for longer”, until the potential market/consumer weakness forces them to reconsider, in our view. Yield curve remains strongly inverted.

3. We held a view over the past two years that corporate earnings will be resilient, but this is likely to start changing into 2H. Profit margins are rolling over at present.

4. At 19-20x, US forward P/E is stretched, especially vs real yields.

5. Bull-Bear has moved into positive territory, VIX is near record low and positioning has increased, there is no more safety net, FOMO is in full swing.

(JPM Equity strategy)

“After multiple trips across Asia, Europe, and the United States to pressure test our macro frameworks in the first half of the year, we think investors are still too conservatively positioned for the path forward we are seeing for the global economy…Importantly, we do not think that a CIO can broadly go risk on and/or risk off.”