Uddrag fra Zerohedge:
Barclay’s says that the stock is increasingly disconnected from fundamentals.
“….we believe fundamentals remain secondary vs. the broader theme of narrative command for Tesla, which has gone into hyperdrive since the US Elections last November. The stock has become untethered from fundamentals, arguably similar to what we saw with Tesla stock in late 2021 when the market was awash in EV Euphoria. Yet it’s important to note this move has very little to do with EVs, as the Election catalyst is objectively a negative for EVs” (Barclays)
Source: Barclays
Not an auto stock
Here is the specialist sales at Morgan Stanley confirming that Tesla for sure no longer trades on auto fundamentals.
“Despite only a handful (like 1 or 2) thinking that the stock would trade on any auto metrics this year (ie. deliveries, gross margins, etc), most all agreed that the governor to performance was progress on robotaxi (provided the legacy EV biz didn’t fall out bed). To that end investors suggested that provided they could show progress in rolling out a robotaxi in a contained environment (ie. Austin) sometime mid-year that that could help unlock future TAM optionality opportunities (ie. Optimus, Stationary storage, etc). ” (Morgan Stanley)
We are in tech-land now
Because it is a terrific tech stock.
“….its clear we are now very much in tech-land with the debate on robotaxi rollout, hardware and software solution suite and relative competitiveness vs peers like Waymo and ultimately Optimus and what the size and scale of that market (and its supply chain) could ultimately be”
Source: Morgan Stanley
Robotaxi revenue
Goldman says that globally, the market for robotaxis could reach billions of dollars in TAM at a higher number of deployments and across operators.
Source: Goldman
“20% of the time for 0% of the value”
Humanoid robots matter…..
“20% of the time for 0% of the value” was the quote that most aptly stood out to me from today’s TSLA Bull vs Bear debate. The reference was to Optimus and the robotic opportunity set ahead which following on recent headlines (Musk said in a CES interview that TSLA will build ~500K Humanoid Robots in three years and 50-100K in 2026. He said eventually, there will be ~20-30B Humanoids in the world with a ratio of 2-3 robots per person) has been front and center and yet hard to frame and pull forward into the debate/valuation discussion.” (MS specialist sales)
The bridge to 800
Just earlier this week Morgan Stanley raised their price target to $430 from $400 previously, driven by increases in their Mobility and Network Services valuations and partially offset this by a decrease in their 3rd Party Battery business valuation. Their revised bull case moves to $800.
Source: Morgan Stanley
FSD miles
Tesla FSD miles until and % of drives without critical disengagement by version.
Source: TeslaFSDtracker
Here comes the monetization
“…we believe FSD monetization could pick up from what we believe are relatively low levels currently as performance improves, and we assume some increase in Tesla’s automotive gross margin in 2026/2027 in part as a result of higher FSD revenue. Each $1 bn of incremental revenue from FSD would add roughly 75-100 bps to Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, all else equal” (GS)
Regulatory credits
“We expect another strong year for Tesla regulatory credits in 2025, forecasting $3.0bn of revenue, up from ~$2.7bn in 2024”
Source: Barclays
Tesla energy storage deployments and revenue
Energy storage sharply inflecting – benefit on revenue and margins.
Source: Barclays
Market share
TSLA market share trends.
Source: EV-Volumes
2030
Hypothetical 2030 volume rank.
Source: Barclays
In the long run….
Ayn Rand said that “you can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality….”
We don’t know if Barclays are channeling their inner Rand or if they are just stubbornly bearish, but here is what they say:
“We believe fundamentals will eventually return to being important to Tesla investors. Yet fornow it’s unclear to us what the negative catalyst is, with the stock to potentially remain elevatedfor now. We reaffirm our EW rating and raise our PT to $325, from $270”
Before you get too bullish
The post Trump win move has been spectacular, but the stock has done little over the past years….
