Formue

Finanshuse: Teknisk peger det klart nedad for både Nasdaq og S&P 500 indeks

Uddrag fra finanshuse:

The 21 day has now crossed the 50 day moving average. NASDAQ futures putting in the biggest down candle in a long time and it looks like we have a new short term trend channel to watch.

Refinitiv

SPX as well

SPX futures putting in the biggest down candle in “forever”. The reversal at the channel highs is perfect. Note that the 21 day is crossing the 50 day moving average…No bueno for the bulls.

Refinitiv

Still relevant…

The SPX now vs 1999 analogy continues to look realistic…

Refinitiv

Crap – new recent lows

Low quality stuff continues trading well offered. MEME and most shorted at new recent lows…

Refinitiv

Sell or sell

Short gamma dealers have been whipsawed over the past 10 sessions or so. The sharp SPX sell off resulted in a lot of delta selling on the way down…only to be met with aggressive need to buy back deltas on the way up. Note we are moving into long gamma territory slightly higher, where dealers will need to sell deltas initially, as well as sell deltas should we move lower again.

Tier1Alpha

Hiking cycle complete

“We believe the Fed’s hiking cycle is now complete and that the Fed will remain on hold at the current Fed funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% into 2024. We expect the first rate cut to come only in 2Q24 and to proceed at a 25bp/quarter pace, with the Fed funds rate range likely ultimately stabilizing at 3-3.25%, though we see some uncertainty around that pace.” (Goldman)

Room for disappointment on rate cut expectations?

Strong US economy and elevated core inflation leaves room for disappointment on rate cut expectations? Expectations for US GDP growth for 2023 have risen sharply from 0.3% at the start of the year, to 2%. This eye-catching increase remains in stark contrast with the recession-signalling intensified inversion of the yield curve. The combination of a strong US economy and elevated core inflation leaves room for potential disappointment in the expectation for rate cuts in early 2024. (Sanford Bernstein)

Potential change to earnings from AI adoption

All S&P 500 industry groups could benefit from an AI-driven earnings boost. Consumer Staples Distribution (35%), Transportation (26%), and Commercial & Professional Services (26%) have the largest potential earnings gains from AI adoption. In contrast, Energy (8%), REITs (10%), and Household & Personal Products (12%) have the smallest potential earnings boost.

Goldman