Uddrag fra Zerohedge:
Trade War News
- White House said US President Trump signed the tariff order effective February 4th which confirms 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports to the US with the exception of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, while imports from China are subject to an additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies with no exclusions offered. The order stated the new tariffs don’t apply to goods loaded onto vessels or in transit before February 1st and stated the President can remove new Canadian tariffs if enough steps are taken to reduce the health crisis but also included a retaliation clause that calls for further action which would likely be increased tariffs.
- US President Trump said tariffs will definitely happen with the EU, while he added the UK is out of line and the EU is really out of line but also noted that he is getting along well with UK PM Starmer, while he stated there are tremendous deficits with Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. Furthermore, Trump said he will be speaking with Canadian PM Trudeau on Monday morning and will also be speaking with Mexico on Monday.
- Elon Musk’s team got access to the US Treasury Department’s payments system. It was separately reported that Elon Musk said they are in the process of shutting down the United States Agency for International Development and that it is beyond repair: NYT
- US Transport Secretary Duffy said the US pilot messaging system experienced a temporary outage on Sunday.
- Wall Street is concerned about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach to government borrowing. Investors credit a 2023 strategy of relying on short-term Treasurys with stabilising markets, but Bessent has criticised this method amid fears of increased borrowing under Trump’s administration: WSJ
- Russia’s Kremlin, on US President Trump, said talks and meetings are scheduled with Russia, apparently contacts are planned, “we have a planning process”.
- Saudi Arabia could be seen as a possible venue for a Trump-Putin meeting, according to Russian sources: Reuters.
- The US House Budget Committee is unlikely to mark up a budget resolution this week, according to GOP leadership sources and lawmakers: Punchbowl.
- Canadian PM Trudeau said the new US tariffs violate the USMCA trade agreement and Canada will impose 25% tariffs on CAD 155bln of US goods with CAD 30bln in tariffs to take effect on February 4th and the rest starting in 21 days. Furthermore, Trudeau said they are considering several non-tariff measures including those relating to minerals and energy procurement, while he added that Canada and Mexico are working together to face the US tariffs.
- Canadian senior government official said the Canadian tariffs will not apply to goods in transit and that the actions of the US are a violation of the obligations of the free trade agreement, while the official added that Canada’s countermeasures will have an impact on the Canadian economy and the government has a plan to try to offset them.
- Canadian Ambassador said she is hopeful that the Trump tariffs don’t come into effect on Tuesday and that US consumers should know retaliatory tariffs are not actions Canada wants to do.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum ordered the start of a retaliatory tariff plan against the US and stated that tariffs will not fix problems but dialogue will, while it was separately reported that Mexico’s Economy Minister said ‘Plan B’ is underway in response to US tariffs. President Sheinbaum later commented that 25% tariffs will have a great impact on both the US and Mexico’s economies, while she added that they categorically reject the US statement that Mexico has ties to drug cartels and stated the US has done nothing to stop the illegal sale of drugs in its own country.
- China’s Commerce Ministry said China will take necessary countermeasures to new US tariffs and that Fentanyl is America’s problem. Furthermore, it said China will challenge the new US tariffs under WTO and that there are no winners in a trade war, while it urged the US to engage in frank dialogue and strengthen cooperation.
- Goldman Sachs believes US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are to be short-lived.
- JPMorgan said model estimates suggest that impact of a sustained 25% US tariff will be large enough to throw Mexican and Canadian economies into recession.
- China is to renew a pledge not to devalue the yuan to help its exporters and it is to offer to reinstate the ‘Phase One’ deal as part of its opening bid for trade negotiations, while it plans to include an offer to make more investments in the US and is to treat TikTok largely as a commercial matter in negotiations, according to WSJ.
- EU said it rejects US President Trump’s decision to hit Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs and it would respond firmly if the US imposed tariffs on Europe, according to FT.
- Yale’s non-partisan policy research centre Budget Lab preliminary estimates project US PCE prices to increase by 0.76% and household purchasing power to be reduced by an average of USD 1250, while US real GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in the medium run, as an impact from US President Trump’s tariffs.
Here is a more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks sold off as all focus was on US President Trump’s latest tariff action over the weekend in which he signed a tariff order which confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (with the exception of 10% on Canadian energy products) and 10% additional tariffs on top of existing levies for China. ASX 200 declined with all sectors suffering firm losses while mixed data did little to spur demand. Nikkei 225 slumped firmly beneath the 39,000 level with Japanese automakers notably spooked by tariff jitters. Hang Seng conformed to the negative mood on return from the Chinese New Year holiday with demand constrained after disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and amid the continued absence of mainland participants.
