Formue

Finanshuse: Voldsomt rally i techaktier, men hvor længe holder det?

uddrag fra finanshuse:

Mega cap – fabulous five months

Hard to find more superlatives, but the 6 big tech US stocks have gained more than $3tn in market cap YTD. That:

1. exceeds US industrials and consumer staples sectors

2. surpasses all 2,000 constituents of the Russell 2000 index

3. is larger than US materials, real estate, and utilities combined

4. close to the market cap of the EuroStoxx50 index (Wilson GS)

Not everyone can be an AI “winner”

Since its “iPhone moment,” Generative AI is on pace to do in 1 year what the took the internet 7 and electricity >20. For those who have been more skeptical, MS Head of EU Thematic Research Ed Stanley highlights that across 80 structural positive and negative adoption curves over the past 50 years, downside disruption occurs sooner and twice as quickly as upside diffusion – as hinted at earlier, not everyone can be a “winner” here. (Morgan Stanley)

Stopped in

Investors have been forced to chase tech in May. The question is when does this become a late trade? The average MF is 15% underweight the top 7 large cap tech names…

NASDAQ and speculators

“They” timed the bigger local tops accurately during H2 2022, but it looks like they missed the last melt up. Net non commercials vs NDX.

Refinitiv

Fear the lack of fear?

Skew isn’t really a fear index, but it shows you the richness of downside protection, in relative volatility terms. Investors have repriced downside protection in an extreme way lately, like if there was no downside fear to fear. Could this itself be something to fear?

Refinitiv

Positioning is light in Energy equities

MS PB Content group noted that in the two weeks through May 26, Energy was the 2nd most sold sector (following industrials) + last week, HFs added more shorts in Integrateds than any other week since March ’20.

Morgan Stanley

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