Flash PMI for Eurozonen
Summarisk resume på dansk:
Eurozonen befinder sig i en mindre økonomisk nedgang, hvor økonomien for anden måned i træk er skrumpet en smule. Det fortsatte fald i fremstillingssektoren bliver delvist opvejet af en beskeden vækst i servicesektoren. På nationalt niveau ses en forværring i Frankrigs økonomiske situation, mens Tyskland oplever en mindre opbremsning i sin tilbagegang. Fremtiden er dog usikker, og det er endnu uklart, om vi står over for yderligere forværring eller forbedring.
Servicesektoren i eurozonen viser fortsat svag vækst og bidrager til en vis stabilitet i økonomien, men udsigterne er ikke lyse. Virksomheder i sektoren modtager færre nye ordrer, og ordrebeholdningen er svundet seks måneder i træk. For første gang siden starten af 2021 er ansættelsesaktiviteten i servicesektoren næsten gået i stå. Den centrale udfordring bliver, om højere lønninger og lavere inflation kan styrke forbrugernes efterspørgsel og dermed give servicesektoren et tiltrængt løft.
For Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) giver de seneste tal en uvelkommen overraskelse, da inflationen i servicesektoren ser ud til at forblive høj. Omkostninger og salgspriser steg i oktober, hvilket formodes at skyldes vedvarende lønpres, som rammer serviceudbyderne særligt hårdt. Alt tyder derfor på, at ECB sandsynligvis vil nøjes med en rentesænkning på 25 basispunkter i december, frem for de 50 basispunkter, som visse økonomer har forudset.
“The eurozone is stuck in a bit of a rut, with the economy contracting marginally for the second month running. The ongoing
slump in manufacturing is being mostly balanced out by small gains in the service sector. At the country level, it can be
noted that the deterioration of the situation in France was met by a slight moderation in the decline in Germany. For now, it is
not clear whether we will see a further deterioration or an improvement in the near future.
“The eurozone’s service sector continues to grow, but only slightly, helping to keep the broader economy near stability.
However, we shouldn’t expect too much in the near future. Companies in this sector are seeing fewer new orders, and the
backlog of work has been shrinking for six months straight. For the first time since early-2021, service sector hiring has
almost come to a halt. The real question is whether the combination of higher wages and lower inflation can revive
consumer spending, which would give service providers a much-needed boost.
“For the European Central Bank (ECB), the latest figures come with an unwelcome surprise. Inflation in the services sector
seems likely to stay elevated, as costs and selling prices in October rose faster than the previous month. This is probably
due to persistent wage pressure, which impacts service providers especially hard. All this backs the idea that the ECB is
likely to cut key interest rates by just 25 basis points in December, rather than the 50 basis points some have been talking
about.”
