Der er flere tegn på en bedre økonomi i eurozonen, viser Economic Sentiment Indicator. Det gælder især for Tyskland og Frankrig, og arbejdsløsheden er nu den laveste i et årti.
Uddrag fra ING:
The Economic Sentiment Indicator improved as industry sentiment increased while services sentiment remained stable. The growth outlook is getting better, but the coronavirus is emerging as a downside risk.
Compared to the other eurozone surveys that have come out this month, the ESI was surprisingly upbeat with an increase to 102.8 from 101.3. German and French industry, in particular, became a lot more optimistic about the outlook and somewhat less pessimistic about recent production developments. These are signs that the bottom in manufacturing is now getting close.
One has to be cautious in interpreting these numbers though as uncertainty around the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy is mounting.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.4% in December, which is a new decade low and just a tenth of a percent above the lowest reading on record. While improvements in the labour market have slowed over the past few quarters, continued job growth does provide an important tailwind for the eurozone service sector and is set to continue in the months ahead as businesses remain relatively upbeat about hiring expectations.
So while the first quarter will not see a sudden revival of growth, signs of recovery are becoming more apparent, which means that the manufacturing recession that the eurozone is currently in can be expected to end in the months ahead. That should lead to a subdued uptick in growth, even though downside risks to the growth outlook like the coronavirus could prolong the sluggish eurozone growth environment a bit more.
