ECB handlede utilstrækkeligt i sidste uge, mener ABN Amro, og mener, at ECB må på banen igen, ligesom regeringerne må komme med langt større stimuli end hidtil.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
More ECB stimulus likely
ECB View: Stimulus package not commensurate with economic shock – The ECB announced a relatively modest stimulus package. ECB President Lagarde called on fiscal policy instead of monetary policy to take the lead in responding to the economic shock from the virus. However she also signalled that further monetary stimulus was also a distinct possibility.
The ECB announced it will step up its net asset purchases by a cumulative EUR 120bn until the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the ECB loosened the conditions on its TLTRO programme, so effectively a 25bp cut (for banks that maintain their levels of credit provision).
The main surprise was that the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5%.
The ECB announced new forecasts for the economic outlook but admitted that these were already completely out of date.
The ECB stepped up its calls for a more substantial response by governments. The press statement asserted that ‘an ambitious and coordinated fiscal policy response is required to support businesses and workers at risk’. President Lagarde noted that the extra fiscal measures at a eurozone level amounted to just 0.25% GDP so far, which the central bank clearly sees as being inadequate. The ECB also made it clear that it expected governments to take the lead in terms of the economic policy response to the crisis. However, the ECB also made it clear that it stood ready to ease policy further saying it would ‘monitor closely the implications of the spread of the coronavirus for the economy, for medium-term inflation and for the transmission of its monetary policy’ and that it stood ‘ready to adjust all of its instruments’.
We think that cutting the TLTRO rate and loosening the other programme conditions will be much more supportive of easier bank lending conditions than reducing the deposit rate. So the policy mix here makes sense. Having said that, the overall scale of the package, given that the economy is likely heading for recession, is modest. As such, we think that further policy easing will follow. We think that the pace of net asset purchases will likely be stepped up further, while further reductions in the TLTRO rate may also now follow to ease bank lending conditions. Furthermore, a reduction in the deposit rate is also not off the table.
