Et amerikansk forbrugertillidsindeks, IBD/TIPP, er igen faldet, og i et helt år har det være negativt. Det er faldet med 1 pct. til 38,1 point. Under 50 betyder en negativ forbrugerholdning. Et andet indeks, National Outlook, har ikke været lavere i et årti. Men samtidig føler forbrugerne, at deres egen finansielle situation er blevet lidt bedre. Dog mener 62 pct. af amerikanerne, at USA befinder sig i en recession.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Business Wire:
Consumer Confidence in Federal Policies Drives Down Economic Optimism
62% of Americans now believe we are in a recession, up four points over the last month
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, declined by 1.0% overall in August to return to a reading of 38.1 due to a significant drop on the Federal Policies component. The index now has been in negative territory for the last 12 months. A reading above 50.0 signals optimism and below 50.0 indicates pessimism on IBD/TIPP indexes.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board.
For the August index, IBD/TIPP surveyed 1,335 adults from August 2 to August 4. The poll was conducted online using TechnoMetrica?s network of panels to provide the sample. IBD/TIPP also surveyed respondents on key political issues for the separate Presidential Leadership Index and National Outlook Index, as well as the Financial Related Stress Index.
After experiencing a nice bump up (+ 4.2%) in July, the Presidential Leadership Index declined by 7.0% in August to hit a new low for the Biden presidency. Its overall reading now stands at 41.4, down from 44.5 last month. Every component fell this month, with Favorability dropping the most at 9.0%.
The National Outlook Index declined for the fourth consecutive month in August. Its overall reading now sits at 37.4, down 3.1% from July?s 38.6. This represents its lowest mark in more than a decade; the last time it was this low was August 2011 (35.5). Every index component except for Quality of Life slipped, with Quality of Life rising 2.0%, moving from 44.4 in July to 45.3 in August. All components remain in negative territory.
Financial Related Stress inched down another 1.2% in August to 68.5 from 69.3. A reading over 50.0 on this index equals more financial stress while a reading below 50.0 would indicate consumers feel less stress. The index was last below 50.0 in February 2020 (48.1).
Although the numbers look bleak across several components, there are some potential spots for optimism in the August indexes,? said Ed Carson, IBD’s news editor. Consumers appear to be feeling a little better about their personal financial situation over the short and long term, however modestly. But we are still on shaky ground, with 62% of Americans believing weve entered a recession.
The flagship IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In August, two increased and one declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy?s prospects in the next six months, rose 1.2% this month. Its reading of 32.6 is up from July?s mark of 32.2.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, climbed 2.6% in August, moving from 45.3 in July to 46.5 this month. This is the highest reading of the three components that comprise this index, yet it remains in negative territory for the third consecutive month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, experienced a substantial drop in August. The index fell from 38.0 to 35.3 ? a decline of 7.1%. This now represents the component?s lowest reading since January 2014 (35.1).
