“Oil prices look likely to stay low in 2026 due to a persistent supply glut, potentially helping to ease inflationary pressures and allowing central banks to stay on the easing path. The aggregate effects of weaker oil prices should prove accretive to corporate earnings growth in 2026. This is one of the key positive factors on our radar as we maintain a constructive view entering 2026. Lower oil prices, easing inflation, dovish central banks Crude oil benchmark Brent prices ended 2025 at US$60.85 per barrel, capping a nearly 20% slide and the steepest annual decline since 2020 (see Exhibit 1). This followed months of production ramp-up by key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), keeping the supply consistently above consumption demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates global inventory buildup of over 2.5 million barrels per day over the second half of 2025.”
Morten W. Langer