“Today, the more likely outcome of the November 2024 election appears to be divided government in Washington, DC, with no single party controlling the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
“A divided government has been the norm for the past five decades, and one markets typically welcome, because gridlock decreases the scope for sweeping legislative change. However, divided government could increase US sovereign default risk if one branch of Congress refuses to lift the debt ceiling. • Broad market returns will not depend on who becomes president, but the outcome will be significant for specific sectors such as energy or pharmaceuticals. Here we go With less than two months until US election day, we are in the final stretch of the race. Over the past two months, the US presidential election dynamics, as well as the outcomes for control of the US Senate and House of Representatives, have shifted significantly. The July 21 decision by President Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris changed the trajectory of the presidential race. Polls have indicated tighter races across all levels of elected government. Initial polling and moves in political futures markets indicate that Vice President Harris “won” the September 10 debate against former President Trump, but it remains premature to know whether the result was enough to firmly entrench her as the frontrunner.”
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