Resume af teksten:
USA og Iran har aftalt at stoppe angrebene efter flere dages kampe, og fredsforhandlinger vil genoptages i Doha. Markedsfokus ligger på skibsfart gennem Hormuzstrædet, og Brent olie handles omkring 72 dollars pr. tønde. Aftagende forhandlinger mellem Iran og USA og bekymringer i tech-sektoren påvirkede aktiemarkederne negativt sidste uge. Nasdaq faldt næsten 5 procent, og Stockholmsbørsen faldt med knap 1 procent. I Asien er der blandet udvikling med stigninger i Hongkong og Shanghai og fald i Tokyo. Eurosvaghed ses på valutamarkedet, mens faldende oliepriser har mindsket langsigtede renteniveauer.
ECB’s forventede renteforhøjelser er reduceret, med fokus på kerneinflation i euroområdet. Amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsdata er i centrum med forventet stabilisering af arbejdsløshed. I Sverige afsluttedes Almedalsugen med fokus på personlige finansforbedringer i partiernes valgprogrammer. Partierne foreslår ændringer i pensioner, skattefradrag og børneydelser, mens De Grønne ønsker kortere arbejdsuger uden ny atomkraft.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The U.S. and Iran have again agreed to halt attacks, after several days of fighting that threatened the fragile ceasefire. Peace talks will resume in Doha during the week. However, the market is mainly focused on ships continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent oil is trading around $72 per barrel.
Setbacks in the Iran-US negotiations and renewed concerns about high valuations in the tech sector weighed on equity markets last week. During the week, the Stockholm stock exchange fell by just under 1 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost almost 5 percent. In Asia, developments are mixed in the morning, with gains in Hong Kong and Shanghai but declines in Tokyo. At the same time, futures point to a positive opening in both Europe and the US. The FX market is quiet this morning, and the Swedish krona remains at this year’s weakest levels against the euro after last week’s weakening. Meanwhile, continued oil price falls contributed to long-term yields broad declines over the past week.
Spanish inflation is really the only interesting macro statistic of the day, but later tonight the ECB’s Christine Lagarde will give a speech in Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB is arranging its annual central bank conference Monday to Wednesday.
The market has scaled back expectations of further rate hikes from the ECB this year and is now penciling in one hike to December, around 20 basis points lower than on the Friday before the U.S. and Iran’s MOU declaration that has caused oil prices to fall back to pre-war levels. This week’s macro harvest from the euro area is expected to show continued elevated inflation, but with clearly lower commodity prices, focus turns to underlying trends. Our view is that indirect effects from high commodity prices remain contained. Nonetheless, core inflation in the euro area as a whole, published on Wednesday, is expected to remain at slightly too high levels in June, driven by stubbornly high service price inflation.
US jobs data is in focus during the week. Both employment and unemployment indicate a stabilisation of the labour market, which is difficult to reconcile with clearly pessimistic hiring plans among small businesses. At the same time, the trend of downward revisions has reversed, and although we continue to expect a cooling in the labour market, we assess that unemployment will stabilise around today’s levels. While job growth is slowing, stricter immigration policies and an ageing population mean a shrinking labour supply in the future. Non-farm payrolls – this time published on Thursday as the U.S. celebrates 4th of July on Friday – is the highlight of t he week and a key metric to watch for markets’ expectations of the Fed.
Nordic key stories
Almedalen Week – Sweden’s arguably most influential annual political forum – has ended and personal finances were a recurring theme in the party leaders’ speeches. A few examples: The Social Democrats head into this autumn’s election promising increased pensions for people who have worked for a long time and had strenuous professions, while the Left Party wants to increase pensions by SEK 2,000 a month. The Moderates want to introduce a new income tax deduction for working parents, the Center Party is going for a tax-free basic salary , financed through a normalisation of the reduced food VAT , and the Christian Democrats want to increase child benefits to SEK 2,000 (currently SEK1,250 per child). The Green Party advocated a shorter working week and said that there will be ” no new nuclear power “. The Liberals want to halve the state income tax in the long term while the Sweden Democrats proposed a ” citizens’ veto against forced mixing “.
SEB was also on site in Visby and you can find all our recordings from this week’s talks (in Swedish) here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/77788
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